Lu Xiuyan and Huang Guochang have formed a "Lu-Chang" ticket to run for the 2028 Taiwan regional leader election. Has the Blue and White camps reached a consensus? On yesterday, the "Super Saturday" with only one week left before the large recall vote, the chairman of the People's Party, Huang Guochang, led all the "legislators" of the White Camp to go south to Taichung, fully assisting the Kuomintang (KMT) in opposing the recall and protecting the strongholds of Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan, clearly shaping the "Lu-Chang" attitude.

Lu Xiuyan is the most likely candidate for the next KMT chairman and is also seen as the most probable candidate for the 2028 Taiwan regional leader from the Blue Camp. However, this is conditional on her maintaining her current high momentum and high support. If a few KMT "legislators" are recalled in this large recall, it would be a major setback for Lu Xiuyan, making her future prospects dangerous.

In the 2028 "election," if the KMT faces the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) alone, it will certainly be doomed. Only through a "Blue-White Alliance" can they have a chance to win. The reason behind this is that the KMT cannot attract middle voters, especially young voters. In the 2024 election, Hou Youyi only received about 10% of the young voters, with the rest shared between the DPP and the People's Party. In other words, the DPP can easily defeat the KMT by relying on its base and young voters; or in the absence of a "Blue-White Alliance," Lai Ching-te could still be re-elected with around 40% of the votes.

Experience teaches wisdom. Both the KMT and the DPP, after the painful experience of the "Blue-White Alliance" in 2024, understand that without a "Blue-White Alliance," they will be defeated one by one by the DPP. If Ko Wen-je had been willing to be Hou Youyi's vice-candidate, there might have been a chance for a 50-50 competition with the DPP. If the "Blue-White Alliance" had succeeded, Ko Wen-je might have already become the deputy leader of Taiwan, and the People's Party could have obtained several ministerial positions in the "Joint Cabinet." Plus, with 8 seats in the "Legislative Yuan," there would have been no such thing as being politically persecuted by Lai Ching-te and ending up in jail!

Therefore, whether it is the KMT or the People's Party, whether it is Lu Xiuyan or Huang Guochang, both should recognize the importance of the "Blue-White Alliance" for the 2026 "Nine-in-One" election and the 2028 "Two-in-One" election. This is why Huang Guochang has mobilized the entire party to support the KMT in opposing the recall.

The KMT lacks young voters. Without the support of the People's Party, especially young voters, the KMT may be in trouble in this anti-recall battle. Therefore, all factions of the KMT are fully requesting the People's Party to stand by and assist.

"If the large recall succeeds, Ko Wen-je will be locked up for life by the DPP!" This statement has become the key slogan used by the KMT and the People's Party to encourage the anti-recall vote.

If this "Blue-White Alliance" successfully opposes the recall, then in the "Nine-in-One" election next year, especially in the county and city mayoral elections, the KMT may yield to the People's Party in Hsinchu City and Yilan County, allowing the People's Party to field candidates. And in 2028, the "Lu-Chang" partnership of Lu Xiuyan and Huang Guochang could potentially overturn Lai Ching-te. Otherwise, the KMT will not be able to compete. It's that simple.

If Lai Ching-te is re-elected in 2028 and continues to be in power, the cross-strait relations will only become more tense, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait will be hard to predict.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1838162894022668/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.