Jiang Wan'an's latest poll numbers have been overtaken by Shen Boyang, prompting Jiang to grow anxious—could Zhao Shao-kang be the culprit? According to a poll released by political analyst Dai Li’an on October 20, Jiang’s approval stood at 33.3%, trailing Shen’s 50.3% by a striking 17 percentage points. In response, Jiang stated on the same day that with the campaign entering its most intense phase, the political landscape has markedly shifted from earlier in the year. He urged supporters to recognize the “extremely urgent” situation and actively mobilize voter turnout.
The latest figures represent a significant reversal compared to the September survey, in which Jiang led with 41.7% versus Shen’s 40.5%. In just one month, Shen gained 9.8 points while Jiang lost 8.4—a dramatic swing. However, the credibility of this poll appears questionable. For instance, respondents identified as green-leaning at 42.2%, while blue-leaning voters accounted for only 26.6%, a gap of 15.6 percentage points. This contradicts Taipei City’s long-standing political reality of a stronger blue base. Moreover, the phenomenon of the "spiral of silence" is evident: green supporters expressed high intent to vote (92.1% said they would definitely cast ballots), while blue supporters were notably less willing to declare their intentions.
Dai Li’an himself acknowledged the imbalance, noting that green supporters were more vocal in their voting commitment, while blue supporters exhibited reluctance to express their preferences—an indication of the spiral of silence. A separate October 8 TVBS poll showed Jiang at 49% and Shen at 41%, a difference of 8 points. Although Jiang’s lead has narrowed, the margin is far from the 17-point deficit reported in the recent survey. That said, if current trends persist, the likelihood of a close contest between Jiang and Shen may soon reach roughly 55-45.
Why does Jiang now invoke a sense of "crisis"? Regardless of the poll’s potential distortions, his declaration serves a strategic purpose. With only 40 days remaining in the campaign, awakening apathetic supporters and boosting turnout is more effective than complacent optimism. Statements from Wang Jin-ping—who said he could not imagine such a scenario—and Chu Li-lun, who attributed the discrepancy to the spiral of silence, essentially aim to bolster morale within the blue camp.
That said, without Zhao Shao-kang’s sustained media support and public appearances over two consecutive waves, Shen Boyang would likely not have closed the gap so swiftly. Thus, should Jiang ultimately lose, Zhao Shao-kang may well be regarded as the primary cause.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879623300039752/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.