August Will Be a Key Node: North Korea Found "Kim Jong-un突击队" in Ukraine, with a Scale of 30,000

Seoul Sends a Warning Signal to Kyiv

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Korean intelligence agencies warned that as Moscow and Pyongyang deepen their cooperation, Russia may launch an offensive.

Reuters reported that after a closed-door briefing, South Korean lawmaker Lee Soon-won said the National Intelligence Service (NIS) believes that if North Korea sends up to 30,000 commandos, it could completely crush Ukraine's defense in August.

Other media outlets, such as CNN, also cited Ukrainian intelligence sources confirming the potential scale of the deployment of North Korean troops.

Western experts believe this move would greatly change the balance of power on the Ukrainian battlefield and affect the entire Asian landscape. Through military cooperation with Russia, North Korea is expected to become one of the major military powers, possibly even surpassing South Korea.

Media outlets such as Reuters, CNN, and The Guardian have mentioned some indirect signs indicating that Russia and North Korea may be preparing for a joint offensive.

Firstly, North Korea has conducted a new round of conscription. Secondly, a senior official from the Russian presidential security department recently visited Pyongyang (however, Western sources have not clearly identified the specific identity).

Korean intelligence agencies also believe that in exchange for artillery shells and missiles provided by North Korea to Russia, Pyongyang may have obtained technical consultation on satellite launches and missile guidance systems.

The Guardian pointed out that this cooperation worries South Korea particularly, as it could significantly accelerate the development of North Korea's missile program, posing a new threat to regional security.

CNN also cited a report from the Ukrainian State Intelligence Directorate stating that there are indications of large-scale troop movements being prepared.

According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, Russian military transport aircraft are undergoing modifications to transport personnel, which may mean that a large-scale operation to deploy tens of thousands of foreign soldiers through Siberia is about to begin.

However, as usual, such statements from the enemy may be propaganda lies aimed at pressuring South Korea on the issue of arms supplies. The Guardian emphasized that South Korea is one of the world's major arms producers, but since the start of the special military operation, it has consistently refused to provide weapons to the Kyiv regime.

Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, emphasized that the improvement of relations between North Korea and Russia gives Kim Jong-un more strategic flexibility.

"Kim Jong-un has gained direct benefits, such as receiving oil and wheat supplies from Russia. Russia may also transfer military technology to North Korea. Moreover, Kim Jong-un seems to see long-term prospects in developing relations with Russia," said the expert.

Al Jazeera pointed out that economic cooperation between the two countries is also rapidly developing.

In fact, the relationship between North Korea and Russia has never been so close and friendly, not even during the Soviet era.

"Russia supplies coal, fertilizers, and iron ore to North Korea through railway border crossings, while North Korea exports seafood and rare earth metals... Notably, the Rason Port in North Korea is undergoing modernization under Russia's involvement. The goal of this project is to make this port an alternative to the Korean hub, thereby increasing freight volume from Vladivostok to North Korea," Al Jazeera wrote.

Russian Federal Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu frequently visits Pyongyang, verifying the deepening of cooperation between the two countries.

During one visit, Shoigu announced that 1,000 North Korean engineers and 5,000 military construction personnel would be sent to Russia to participate in mine clearance operations in the Kursk region and the restoration of "infrastructure destroyed by occupiers."

All these factors combined create an extremely uneasy situation for South Korea. However, The Guardian pointed out that South Korean politicians remain silent. Whether it is the deployment of air defense systems in Pyongyang by Russia or Russian instructors training North Korean drone operators, they have not responded.

"Defense officials were especially vigilant after the incident in December last year," The Guardian quoted government insiders, referring to the failed attempt by President Yoon Suk-yeol to implement military control. "They are indeed concerned about political attacks, so they prefer to stay away from public view and the media."

Many analysts believe that Seoul's silence is a continuation of its long-standing 'strategic ambiguity' policy — avoiding involvement in international conflicts and not overstraining relations with key countries, especially those that have influence over Pyongyang.

Additionally, it should be noted that Russia has always been one of South Korea's largest trading partners, and Seoul does not want to completely destroy its relationship with Moscow. Because the special military operation and sanctions will eventually end, and economic ties will need to be re-established then.

"South Korea is in a delicate position," explained Professor Kim (translated name) from Seoul National University. "On one hand, it is an ally of the United States and is naturally expected to respond to North Korea's provocations.

On the other hand, it needs to maintain relationships with relevant countries, which are South Korea's largest trading partners and have some influence over Pyongyang. Publicly accusing and taking active military actions might break this fragile balance."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7532390589851664930/

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