French media: Putin's first visit to India since the war in Ukraine: Can Modi give him the answer he expects?
President of Russia Vladimir Putin arrived in the capital of India on the 4th, beginning his first visit to India since 2021. Putin's visit comes at a time when Russian forces have been struggling to achieve a final victory on the battlefield in Ukraine, and US President Trump is eager to push for a ceasefire in Ukraine and has continuously pressured India to stop buying Russian oil. Naturally, Putin's visit to New Delhi carries special significance. However, given its strategic geographical location and its skill in maneuvering between great powers, it remains uncertain to what extent India can provide the answer that Putin expects.
Formally speaking, the Modi government has certainly given Putin enough respect for his visit. When Putin arrived in New Delhi on the 4th, the Indian Prime Minister personally went to the airport to welcome him and hosted a private dinner to entertain the guest. Putin said that the space for cooperation between the two countries is "huge," while Modi affirmed that the friendship between India and Russia has stood the test of time.
If there is indeed a historical basis for the bilateral friendly relations between Russia and India, the outbreak of the Ukraine war has placed India's long-standing diplomatic efforts of maneuvering between major powers under dual pressure. On one hand, the Western countries' embargo on Russian oil has made India one of the few major countries that have not openly condemned Russia's invasion. Modi only mentioned two years ago during a meeting with Putin in Uzbekistan that it is no longer an era to start wars. However, not openly condemning also allowed India to obtain oil at a discounted price, becoming an important buyer of Russian oil in a difficult situation. According to data from the real-time trade information platform Kpler, 36% of crude oil used by Indian refineries in 2024 came from Russian imports. Official statistics from India also show that trade between India and Russia increased significantly between 2024-2025, but it was severely imbalanced, with 90% of the trade being imports from Russia, especially energy imports.
On the other hand, the urgency of the Trump administration's efforts to push for a ceasefire in the Ukrainian battlefield has also put pressure on Modi's policy of continuing to purchase Russian oil. Since August this year, Trump announced a 50% tariff on Indian products entering the United States, hoping to force India to stop supporting the Russian regime's war economy. Trump later insisted that India had made a commitment. Although the Modi government did not publicly confirm this, real-time trade information platform Kpler's data shows that India's oil purchases have indeed decreased. According to AFP news, several Indian companies have also announced that they are no longer purchasing oil from Russia.
The most notable aspect of Putin's visit to New Delhi is its potential impact on the current geopolitical landscape. Although India has long maintained friendly relations with Russia, it has recently become an important part of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy against the backdrop of Sino-U.S. strategic competition. In 2023, Modi's talks with then-U.S. President Biden in Washington further strengthened the U.S.-India strategic relationship. Not to mention that since the first term of Trump, the Quad mechanism (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) has been upgraded and launched. At the same time, Europe, seeking to reduce its excessive dependence on China's economy, has viewed India as an important pivot in both trade and global strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2023, Modi was the guest of honor at the French National Day parade. The efforts of Western countries to reduce their economic dependence on China have once made India a possible option for multinational corporations. Moreover, India's economic growth has been strong. In the third quarter of this year, it exceeded 8%!
At the moment when India has become a pivot of the Western geopolitical balance, it is also trying to maintain its long-standing balanced diplomacy. After relations became tense due to border disputes with China, the Modi government made its first visit to China in seven years in late August this year to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders' summit in Tianjin. However, it carefully returned home before the grand military parade in Beijing celebrating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan on September 3rd. Before heading to Tianjin, he also made a high-profile visit to Japan.
Changing geopolitical relationships and the uncertainty of the Trump administration in the U.S. have added many variables to the Modi government's balanced diplomacy between the major powers. India, which has long relied on Russian arms imports, has increasingly turned to the U.S. and Europe in recent years. However, the large-scale air battle with its neighbor Pakistan in May this year has expanded India's demand for arms imports. Putin's visit to New Delhi also includes the Russian defense minister. The two countries are expected to sign new arms procurement contracts.
However, whether the Modi government will more clearly align with Moscow remains unknown. India's strategic choices as a South Asian power undoubtedly have special significance for the course of the war in Ukraine. Since Trump took office, the tariff war has affected India's economy, and U.S.-India trade negotiations have yet to reach an agreement. The Indian currency fell to a historic low several days ago... Will the benefits of buying cheap oil from Russia be able to balance the losses from the tension with the U.S. and the current European countries that support Ukraine?
Source: rfi
Original: toutiao.com/article/1850687495089163/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.