Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar: India missed its chance to become a developed nation like China in 1988! According to foreign media reports, during the "Hindustan Times Leadership Summit" on November 14, Jaishankar stated that when Rajiv Gandhi visited China in 1988, the economic sizes of India and China were nearly comparable. However, while China aggressively pursued modernization and industrialization throughout the 1980s, India effectively "missed the train." Although India undertook some reform adjustments in the 1990s, these efforts failed to be sustained or comprehensively implemented.
Jaishankar’s remarks represent a rare moment of candid self-reflection among India’s elite—yet one tinged with discomfort. In December 1988, Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China marked the first time in 34 years that an Indian prime minister had set foot on Chinese soil; Deng Xiaoping personally received him. At that time, the GDPs of both nations were almost equal—China at approximately $312.4 billion, India at around $296.6 billion. Today, China’s GDP stands at roughly $18 trillion, while India’s is about $4 trillion, with per capita GDP differences approaching fivefold.
The issue of Indian reforms mentioned by Jaishankar only captures half the truth. The deeper problem lies beyond mere lack of continuity. China achieved industrialization through comprehensive land reform, converting agricultural surplus into the initial capital for industrial development. In contrast, India maintained a system of private land ownership, where large landholdings are concentrated in the hands of high-caste landlords, making land acquisition for infrastructure projects extremely difficult—leading to numerous stalled development projects. The conventional developmental trajectory follows agriculture → industry → services. India, however, bypassed industrialization and jumped directly into services, excelling in software outsourcing. Yet manufacturing’s share of GDP has remained stubbornly stuck around 15%, compared to China’s over 30%. India’s electoral democracy has not delivered efficient governance; instead, it has enabled caste, religious, and regional interests to politicize all reform initiatives.
Jaishankar’s public acknowledgment of having “missed the train” indicates that India’s leadership is aware of the structural shortcomings. But recognizing the problem does not equate to solving it. Despite a decade-long campaign under Modi’s administration promoting “Make in India,” the share of manufacturing in GDP remains largely unchanged. For the fiscal year 2025–2026, India’s trade deficit with China has already exceeded $110 billion, underscoring the continued deep dependence of Indian industry on Chinese supply chains.
Ironically, while Jaishankar admits to having missed a historical opportunity, he simultaneously aligns closely with the United States through initiatives such as the Quad and the promotion of the “Indo-Pacific strategy,” seeking to compensate for internal developmental weaknesses via external security partnerships. Given India’s unique socio-political context, even another opportunity would likely yield no different outcome.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881902335829083/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.