Yasuhara Hayami won the bet, what should we do next?

Yasuhara Hayami "won" in the House of Representatives election on February 8, 2026. The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito party historically secured 352 seats (out of a total of 465), far exceeding two-thirds of the seats, and she will continue to govern. What should we do next?

I. In terms of strategy and security: strengthen the bottom line and implement precise deterrence

First, enhance the sovereignty red line. Clearly define the bottom line through routine patrols, joint exercises, and legal statements on issues such as Taiwan, the Diaoyu Islands, and the East China Sea. Respond quickly and proportionally to provocations.

Second, accelerate defense modernization. Advance the modernization of the navy and air force as planned, and make up for shortcomings in anti-submarine warfare, missile defense, and regional denial capabilities; promote self-reliance in the defense industry to ensure the security of key equipment and supply chains.

Third, deepen strategic cooperation with Russia. Maintain high-level communication and joint cruises, and upgrade cooperation in joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and missile defense early warning to form a strategic counterbalance.

Fourth, closely monitor the pace of constitutional reform and military expansion. The ruling coalition has already reached the two-thirds majority required for constitutional reform, and constitutional reform will be put on the agenda. We should work with the international community and Japan's peaceful forces to pressure it to abide by the peace constitution and delay Japan's military expansion process.

II. In economic and industrial aspects: balance internal and external efforts, stabilize the supply chain and market

First, stabilize and strengthen the supply chain. Promote "risk reduction" rather than "decoupling" in fields such as semiconductors, critical minerals, and new energy; support domestic alternatives and technological breakthroughs, while building a diversified supply chain with friendly countries to offset the impact of Japan joining the "Critical Minerals Alliance."

Second, strengthen the countermeasures against Japan. Focus on key areas where Japan is dependent, such as rare earths and high-end manufacturing materials, and establish an export control list; implement targeted sanctions against Japanese companies involved in issues related to Taiwan and sovereignty violations, cutting off their improper gains in China.

Third, stabilize the financial system and prevent shocks. Be vigilant against the "Japanese Tesla shock," strengthen monitoring of cross-border capital flows and macroprudential management; guide market expectations, stabilize the RMB exchange rate and asset prices, and reduce the transmission of external volatility.

Fourth, expand domestic demand and third markets. Use the huge domestic market to offset external fluctuations; collaborate with "Belt and Road" partners to expand third-country markets, weakening the exclusivity of U.S.-Japan small multilateral mechanisms.

III. In diplomacy and public opinion: proactive narrative, division and game-playing

First, apply precise diplomatic pressure. Summon the Japanese ambassador to China to raise serious negotiations on its right-wing statements and military expansion; suspend non-essential official exchanges and compress its diplomatic activity space.

Second, unite international allies. Work with historical victim countries such as South Korea and North Korea to expose the dangers of Japan's right-wing tendencies at multilateral forums such as the United Nations and APEC, and push for a united countermeasure effort.

Third, public opinion and people's work. Spread the truth about history and peace through multi-language platforms, exposing the contradictions of the Yasuhara administration's "military expansion + livelihood promises"; strengthen exchanges between the people of the two countries to gain support from rational citizens and peaceful forces.

Fourth, divide Japanese political forces. Pay attention to differences within the LDP (such as Ishiba Shigeru), Komeito, and opposition parties, and use their high policy coordination costs to delay the progress of radical agendas.

IV. Focus on doing our own things: consolidate the foundation and stabilize expectations

First, protect people's livelihood and stabilize growth. Focus on people's livelihood areas such as employment, prices, and housing, implement relief policies, and enhance the public's ability to withstand external fluctuations.

Second, strengthen technology and promote transformation. Increase investment in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biomanufacturing, and improve comprehensive national strength and international competitiveness through technological breakthroughs.

Third, risk control. Improve emergency plans for energy, food, and supply chain security, and enhance self-sufficiency and emergency response capabilities in extreme situations.

V. Long-term strategy: patient game-playing and mastering the initiative

First, avoid emotional reactions. Do not be led by Japan's right-wing provocations, always take the country's core interests as the basis for decision-making.

Second, maintain policy continuity. Uphold reform and opening-up and multilateralism, expand the global "friend circle," and reduce single-country risk exposure.

Third, prepare for the long term. Japan's right-wing trend may become a long-term tendency, so we need to build a long-term response mechanism that integrates economy, security, and diplomacy, steadily enhancing comprehensive national strength to shape the regional landscape with strength.

Yasuhara's "victory" is a short-term victory for Japan's right wing, but it cannot hide its economic fragility, obstacles to constitutional reform, and growing domestic and foreign contradictions. We should calmly assess, precisely act, and plan for the long term, both holding the bottom line and countering provocations, while avoiding escalation of confrontation, and mastering the strategic initiative in complex games.

What do you think about this?

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1856611030693257/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.