At around midnight on May 7 local time, India stated that the Indian Air Force had launched "Operation Sindoor" and attacked "terrorist facilities" in Pakistan, targeting nine sites in Pakistan (five of which were located in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir). Pakistan claimed that it had shot down six Indian military aircraft ("in self-defense") (the results are yet to be confirmed).

In response to the sudden escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, Observer Network held a dialogue with Ambassador Zamir Akram, a famous Pakistani diplomat. He once served as the Director of Afghanistan Affairs at the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, Director of the South Asia Division, Secretary General of the Prime Minister's Office, and Secretary General of Disarmament and Arms Control. Ambassador Akram analyzed the current situation from Pakistan's perspective and discussed possible ways out for the future of Indo-Pakistani relations.

【Written by Zamir Akram, Interviewed by Observer Network, Tang Xiaofu】

Observer Network: The situation between India and Pakistan has escalated again. At midnight on July 7 local time, India launched a missile strike against Pakistan, followed by Pakistan's claim to have shot down six Indian military aircraft. Do you expect further escalation of this conflict? What reactions will India have after losing this round of air combat?

Ambassador Akram: It is difficult to judge whether India will further escalate the situation at this stage. The US Secretary of State has communicated with both sides. Pakistan has clearly conveyed to the United States that this conflict was not initiated by us. If India restores rationality under the persuasion of the US Secretary of State, we also do not want to escalate the conflict. However, we have made it clear that if India takes any military action against Pakistan, we will certainly respond accordingly.

In fact, after India launched its attack, we retaliated and have indicated that we are willing to stop actions at any time after completing necessary counterattacks. Whether the regional situation will continue to escalate depends entirely on India's choice.

If they insist on escalating, we will certainly respond to all their actions. I believe reason should prevail, and India should realize that further confrontation with Pakistan does not serve its own interests, and should immediately decide to stop any escalation actions.

The wreckage of the Indian aircraft shot down by Pakistan

Observer Network: From your perspective, what preparations has Pakistan made for this conflict? Can it cope with the potential for all-out war?

Ambassador Akram: If India launches a full-scale war against us, we will naturally counterattack with our maximum capability. We now also have the ability to deal with these challenges. But as I said, India should act rationally and not launch a full-scale war against Pakistan, because escalating the conflict itself does not serve India's own interests.

A full-scale war means that the conflict will continue to escalate along a constantly rising ladder, which is extremely dangerous. Since I am no longer a technical official, I cannot delve into specific operational details or possess information about the operational aspects of war preparation. However, what I know is that we have fully anticipated various means that India may adopt and are ready to respond at any time.

Observer Network: Is there a risk of nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan? How can both sides avoid miscalculations leading to the "red line" being crossed in small-scale clashes in Kashmir? Does this "extreme-to-extreme" strategy exacerbate the vicious cycle of insecurity in South Asia?

Ambassador Akram: Any standoff involving two nuclear powers is extremely dangerous, so Pakistan has always believed that such a nuclear standoff should be avoided under any circumstances, and has consistently adhered to this position. This is also why when there is a standoff in disputed areas like Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan has always insisted that conflicts must be resolved through dialogue and compromise via political means. However, India has always refused to seek solutions and is unwilling to engage in dialogue with Pakistan.

The problem now is that India attacked Pakistan early in the morning on July 7, taking the first step and starting a confrontation with Pakistan. Our resolute counterattack also demonstrates our commitment to self-defense. For India, it still has time to realize that the use of force will not solve any problems. Such abuse of force will lead to a situation neither side wants, ultimately harming India's own interests.

Therefore, the wisest choice for India is to return to the negotiating table, restore dialogue with Pakistan, and strive to find solutions to differences, especially the dispute over Kashmir.

Observer Network: Since the terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region on April 22, India has been constantly taking actions, even unilaterally terminating the Indus Waters Treaty, endangering the water security of downstream Pakistani civilians. How do you evaluate India's series of actions since April?

Ambassador Akram: These measures will obviously harm the relationship between the two countries. If India does not recognize its mistakes and withdraw relevant resolutions in time, these actions may cause permanent damage to bilateral relations. In fields such as water resource distribution, if India creates precedents for questioning or undermining the Indus Waters Treaty, it will have serious consequences globally. Because if one country questions internationally recognized treaties, more countries will follow suit.

The Indus Waters Treaty grants Pakistan control over three western rivers, including the Indus River, while India is allowed to use three eastern rivers.

In my view, the short-term impact of destroying the Indus Waters Treaty is zero - India currently lacks the ability to block water flow or build large-scale reservoirs on these three rivers; but in the long term, they may develop such capabilities. However, as Pakistan has clearly stated, any reduction or transfer of water quantities to Pakistan according to the Indus Waters Treaty will be considered an act of war, and we will fight for it.

Observer Network: Kashmir has always been the focal point of contention and the frontline of conflict between India and Pakistan. How can both sides manage risks and stabilize the security situation in South Asia?

Ambassador Akram: I believe the first step is to take confidence-building measures so that we can properly manage this issue and maintain smooth communication channels between both parties, preventing any sudden actions or developments from disrupting mutual relations.

However, in the long run, only solutions based on the wishes of the people of Jammu and Kashmir can be viable. Any imposed solution will not work. Only by respecting their right to self-determination can this dispute truly be resolved.

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