【Military Second Dimension】Author: Lile

Over the past few days, the claim that "China dispatched 16 flights of the Y-20 to Iran within 56 hours to transport equipment" has spread widely on overseas social media, with many media outlets viewing it as a typical operation for the formal delivery of the HQ-9BE to counter the recent U.S. military threats against Iran.

▲The story is very widespread

Well, although many bloggers and media have described the event as if it were real, and used the "aircraft actively disabling its transponder" as an explanation for why it wasn't detected by the outside world, many details still don't hold up. The advanced information network makes traditionally confidential non-military operations extremely difficult, especially in a country like Iran, which lacks sufficient oversight (because blocking Starlink is very costly, and Iran gave up blocking several days ago and restored network connectivity). However, so far, there has been no image or video showing any Y-20 landing or taking off in Iran. For comparison, even when an An-124 arrived in Iran at the end of 2024, it was precisely captured by Western satellites.

▲The Y-20 that went to Serbia was widely watched

Secondly, the HQ-9BE is a large-scale air defense system with a very complex structure. When China delivered the old FK-3 to Serbia, it took 22 flights. Now, delivering the HQ-9BE with only 16 Y-20 flights is basically impossible. In fact, unless in special situations like Serbia, sellers tend to use maritime transport. For example, when Russia delivered the S-400 to China, despite the two countries being adjacent, they still shipped it via Europe, circumventing the entire globe (during which some equipment was damaged due to waves, and Russia later sent a replacement, which is a rare special case).

▲The delivery of the S-400 was really complicated

From what we've seen so far, it might be that two Y-20s arrived in Iran, but there are no reliable sources of information. Although the external situation in Iran has appeared calm recently, it's actually turbulent underneath. A few days ago, Iran announced closing its airspace, truly sensing the danger. Later, the White House confirmed that Trump canceled the military action at the last moment. Meanwhile, the "Lincoln" aircraft carrier, which was urgently deployed to the Indian Ocean, had already turned off its transponder after crossing the Malacca Strait, entering a highly symbolic "pre-war silence" state. According to normal speed, the "Lincoln" will arrive at the attack position around the 24th. The U.S.-Israel alliance will gain the crucial EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft reinforcement, making large-scale military action possible.

▲The value of the EA-18G is unique

Because the "Bush" aircraft carrier won't be ready for deployment until mid-February, and it can reach the Indian Ocean as early as late February, Iran currently faces two key time windows in late January and late February, with the most dangerous one being when the U.S. doesn't wait for the second carrier and directly acts after the "Lincoln" is in place. The recent high-profile attention of the Trump administration on Greenland seems to have a covert meaning. Additionally, the Iranian government announced that more than 5,000 people died in previous riots, including over 500 security personnel, indicating that the intensity of the riots is far more severe than what the outside world sees.

▲The problem of the U.S. Navy's lack of aircraft carriers has finally become tangible

Last December, when the "Bush" arrived in Guam, we mentioned that it wouldn't stay long in East Asia and would head directly to the Indian Ocean, which lacks a carrier strike group. We didn't expect the "Bush" to actually stay in the South China Sea for a month. Looking back now, this move aimed at boosting morale in the Philippines caused the U.S. to miss the strategic opportunity for an external attack during the internal unrest in Iran. If the "Bush" had been patrolling the Indian Ocean at that time, the U.S.-Israel coalition's fighters might have already appeared over Iran in mid-January. With regret and disappointment, the U.S. might indeed have the possibility of launching a surprise attack while Iran is recovering from its wounds.

▲Modern air defense systems require years of training to operate effectively

Modern long-range air defense systems have high operational requirements. In the face of impending war challenges, emergency delivery of the HQ-9BE has little practical value. Although Iran has a legal basis to purchase missiles after the UN sanctions expire, it's unfortunately impossible for Iran to obtain such strategic equipment as the HQ-9BE that could change regional dynamics without surviving this current crisis.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7597729722058932771/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.