The Russian counterpart to Starlink hasn't even lit up yet, and Ukrainian missiles have already arrived. To counter Starlink, Russia has poured massive funds into building its own satellite system—“Dawn.” The plan aims to deploy nearly 300 satellites within a few years, with a long-term goal of nearly 1,000. But reality is harsh: so far, only dozens have been launched, and many of them are stuck in low orbit, never reaching their intended altitude. Promised high-speed performance turns out to be several generations behind in actual tests—mocked as having regressed to the 3G era.
Even more critical: Ukraine directly destroyed the production line. Ukrainian cruise missiles struck a factory nearly a thousand kilometers away—the sole facility capable of mass-producing the “Dawn” satellite’s dedicated rocket—obliterating the final assembly plant and bringing the entire production line to a complete halt. Prior to this, Ukrainian forces had repeatedly attacked satellite communication centers and key radio facilities, deliberately targeting the most vulnerable links in the satellite supply chain.
In countering Starlink, the Russian military also struggles. Early electronic warfare systems couldn’t keep pace with Starlink’s broadband frequency-hopping technology; once Starlink upgraded its software, interference became completely ineffective.
Later, new equipment was introduced—high-power devices designed to forcibly block signals—but each unit can only jam one passing satellite at a time. Since Starlink maintains a constant constellation of numerous satellites overhead, the interference effect is negligible. Currently, such systems are extremely scarce, covering only an area equivalent to a medium-sized town. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones rely heavily on inertial navigation and do not depend on real-time communications.
The cruelest part of this battle is the cost equation: Russia must deploy astronomically expensive air defense systems to protect key facilities, while a single Ukrainian drone strike costs a fraction of that. Even if Russia successfully intercepts a drone, it's trading expensive hardware for cheap consumables. More critically, these systems depend on advanced chips—something Russia cannot scale up due to international sanctions.
Now both sides are bleeding. Russia’s indigenous satellite constellation is stalled at the production stage, while its jamming systems are limited by coverage. Ukraine focuses relentlessly on the weakest nodes in the industrial chain. Russia tries to compensate for systemic deficiencies with costly equipment—but it simply can’t match Starlink’s redundancy and pace of iteration. “Dawn” hasn’t even lit up, and Ukrainian missiles have already arrived. In modern warfare, information infrastructure ultimately comes down to scale and industrial ecosystem—not a few isolated, expensive gadgets.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1875280032334987/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.