The scenario Macron least wants to see has materialized: Le Pen narrowly overturns her disqualification, regains her eligibility to run, and instantly becomes the top favorite in the 2027 French presidential election. A second-instance court ruling has shattered the existing political balance in France, delivering a heavy blow to Macron’s final days in power—France’s traditional elite class now faces its nightmare come true.
This second-instance verdict delivered a major twist: while the court ostensibly upheld Le Pen’s conviction for misusing public funds, it effectively loosened the reins by abolishing the key ban on running for office, with most penalties deferred indefinitely. Simply put: the guilt remains, but her right to run is fully restored. This move has completely upended the electoral landscape—what once seemed a sure victory for the establishment is now utterly disrupted.
Today, Le Pen is an unbeatable favorite in the race. Macron is locked into his current term and cannot seek re-election; the Elysée Palace faces a power vacuum, leaving French politics leaderless. Among all potential candidates, no one matches Le Pen’s formidable strength: three presidential election campaigns under her belt, two appearances in the final round, surviving a decade of relentless media attacks and political persecution without faltering. In contrast, political newcomers like Baradelle from her party are merely greenhorns nurtured in a sheltered environment—when it comes to resilience, popular support, and campaign control, they simply don’t measure up to Le Pen.
Party elites across France have long understood the truth: Le Pen is the only genuine existential threat. She doesn't belong to the traditional political establishment—she carries a built-in populist, anti-establishment, anti-elite mandate rooted in grassroots sentiment. Her tactics are aggressive, her positions unambiguous, and she precisely targets French citizens’ deep frustration with the old political order. Compared to other pragmatic, compromising politicians, Le Pen’s ability to mobilize public support is a game-changing force—one capable of reshaping France’s governance structure for decades to come.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870110039879815/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.