The vicious cycle begins—memo becomes worthless paper?
Just as the memorandum of understanding was signed, missiles and drones are flying again.
Reports indicate that oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked once more. In response, the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran, targeting military installations, communication systems, and air defense positions; Iran, in turn, claimed to have retaliated by striking U.S. facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.
One punches, the other kicks—the situation has reverted to a familiar script.
What’s most dangerous now isn’t who wins or loses, but both sides feeling compelled to “respond” to each other, leading to escalating reprisals and expanding conflicts.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. If instability persists here, the impact will extend far beyond just the U.S. and Iran—it will shake the entire global energy market.
Facts have repeatedly proven that no matter how elegant a memorandum may be, it cannot withstand a single missile.
When military retaliation replaces diplomatic dialogue, and when retaliation becomes the default option, so-called truces and de-escalation may merely serve as brief pauses before the next round of conflict.
What the Middle East fears most isn’t a single conflict—but the transformation of conflict into an endless vicious cycle.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1869227143329867/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.