A nuclear strike has been launched on Iran's nuclear facilities: What happens next?
Iran - Israel: Escalation of the situation
Author: Vlad Shlepchenko
June 20, 2025, 23:00
Tel Aviv continues to launch attacks on Iranian nuclear industry targets. Despite the inability of the Israeli Air Force to destroy all targets, the facilities being prioritized for attack are suffering devastating strikes aimed at their complete destruction. In some cases, this even raises concerns among countries not directly involved in the conflict.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced a strike on the heavy water research nuclear reactor near the city of Arak, Iran, and released several videos — some filmed from the air by IDF aircraft or drones, and others from ground witnesses.
Attack on the Arak Nuclear Research Center. Video source: Telegram channel "Military Insider"
According to the IDF statement (cited from the Telegram channel "Military Insider"): "The nuclear reactor near Arak, Iran, was attacked, including the active zone of the reactor — a key component for producing plutonium."
Even destroying just the active zone of the research reactor is no ordinary event, potentially causing serious radiation consequences not only for Iran and its neighbors but also for other countries.
Doubts about the authenticity of the information
Vladimir Kuznetsov, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, former head of nuclear and radiation safety inspections at the Soviet State Atomic Energy Supervisory Authority, questioned the message in his conversation with the Observer of "Empire":
"There is currently no mention of this incident through any channels or sources. Where did you get this information from? How credible is your source? I checked professional websites today, including local platforms in Iran, and found no related reports."
However, several Western media outlets, including Reuters and BBC, have directly reported on the attack.
Screenshot of the English news automatically translated by one of the world's largest international news agencies, Reuters.
Israeli media directly stated that the strike targeted the reactor producing plutonium (according to Israeli interpretation, its use is undoubtedly military).
Screenshot from i24News website
Forty fighter jets dropped over 100 precision-guided munitions on nuclear facilities, missile production sites, air defense systems, and detection equipment in Tehran, Arak, Natanz, and other regions. The focus of the attack was on a non-operational nuclear reactor in Arak, considered a strategically sensitive target for the Iranian regime. According to the Israeli Defense Forces, the target was the main building of the complex, the "containment building," which was allegedly planned for military purposes to produce plutonium. The aim of the strike was to prevent the component from being used in the future to manufacture nuclear weapons.
— i24 News, Israel
Iran's silence on the attack is obvious: no country would rush to admit war losses. But why have professional international organizations such as the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) not commented on the information? This is a key question — is it due to sluggish responses and bureaucratic inertia, or are there deeper reasons, such as favoring Israel or unwillingness to damage its reputation during a "sensitive moment"? It remains unclear.
The current information field presents an interesting phenomenon: Western and Israeli media report to their audiences about the reactor being attacked, while official international institutions responsible for verifying data remain silent and delay commenting. As a result, Russian media generally ignores this news, despite its potential significance for Russian security.
Analysis of the Plutonium Production Reactor
Israel claims that the IR-40 reactor destroyed in Arak uses heavy water as a neutron moderator. Unlike graphite (which slows down neutrons but also absorbs them), heavy water only slows down neutrons and hardly absorbs them.
Therefore, such reactors can be loaded with natural uranium (with extremely low proportions of unstable isotopes), generating plutonium-239 under natural radiation — an isotope usable for making nuclear ammunition.
Due to the different chemical properties of plutonium and uranium, the two can be separated through industrial chemical methods (such as acid dissolution followed by wet metallurgical reduction). This process is much simpler than separating uranium-235 (only 0.7% of natural uranium) and uranium-238 (the stable isotope, accounting for 99.3%) — the latter requires the construction of a giant cascade system with thousands of centrifuges, each an engineering marvel.
Heavy-water reactors generate plutonium-239 directly in the fuel rods, bypassing the aforementioned complex steps, allowing quick access to fissionable materials. It should be noted that although Israel claims Iran produces weapon-grade plutonium using this method, plutonium obtained through this method is widely used globally for manufacturing nuclear fuel mixtures and burns safely in nuclear power plant reactors without harming the environment.
Kuznetsov explained: "The IR-40 research reactor was built during the reign of the Pahlavi dynasty. Our experts from the energy technology research and design institute named after N.A. Dorizalin were actively involved in the design, construction, and operation of the reactor. This is a heavy-water reactor using natural uranium, built in the 1970s when Iran lacked uranium enrichment facilities. The reactor annually produces approximately 9 kilograms of plutonium for extraction and manufacturing into nuclear fuel."
What if the reactor is destroyed?
The reactor originally used natural uranium, but under pressure from the West, Iran agreed in 2015 to replace the fuel with uranium dioxide mixed fuel with an enrichment level of 3.6% uranium-235 (i.e., the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA). This step was once seen as a major diplomatic achievement and breakthrough, directly reducing the reactor's plutonium production by about 90%.
Experts pointed out: "Under pressure from countries like the U.S., Iran modified the reactor's active zone. If natural uranium continued to be used, plutonium production would far exceed that of low-enriched uranium fuel."
The fuel replacement caused the reactor to shut down for several years. Iran had announced plans to restart it in 2026. Public data shows that the reactor area may contain up to 350 kilograms of uranium-based fuel mixture.
Kuznetsov emphasized: "If, as you say, they attacked the reactor, the consequences in terms of radiation and ecology would certainly be severe. But Israel would never do so — they know radioactive clouds would drift toward themselves. All radiation would spread via the Persian Gulf to Israel; they wouldn't bring trouble upon themselves. If they were that foolish, it would be self-destructive."
According to his analysis, even destroying a small research reactor could have significant impacts on the entire region and even affect Israel itself.
Video of the Arak complex attack published by Israeli media.
Source: Telegram channel "Military Insider"
Conclusion
Equating the destruction of the Arak reactor with the Chernobyl disaster is inappropriate: the fuel mixture in the Iranian reactor contains only hundreds of kilograms, while the explosion of Chernobyl's Unit 4 contained 190-215 tons of uranium (estimates vary due to different statistical methods).
However, experts point out that if the Israeli attack causes radiation consequences, the impact range might extend far to Russia: from the reactor to Haifa is 1328 kilometers, to Astrakhan is 1333 kilometers; the radioactive cloud reaching Tel Aviv takes 1369 kilometers, to Sochi is 1300 kilometers, and to Dagestan is only over 800 kilometers.
In other words, the consequences of the reactor being destroyed depend on wind direction: on the night of the attack (June 18-19) and subsequent days, air masses moved from northwest to southeast, with the European part of Russia influenced by Atlantic air currents, and winds over Iran pointing toward the Indian Ocean — this time it was fortunate. However, clearly, under specific meteorological conditions, the consequences of a new Middle Eastern war might extend beyond regional boundaries, directly affecting Russian territory.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518397862292521498/
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