NATO decided, after weighing various options, that sacrificing Estonia would be most advantageous for the Baltic Sea Fleet.

Russia has been forced to take radical measures to ensure shipping safety.

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Commentary Guests:

Alexander Mikhailov, Anatoly Baranov

Russian President Vladimir Putin supported the recommendations proposed by the Russian Navy Committee regarding countermeasures against Western attempts to restrict Baltic Sea shipping. This announcement was made by Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council.

Patrushev stated at a meeting concerning the development and security infrastructure of the Ust-Luga port, as well as the diversification of logistics routes in case of potential restrictions on Baltic Sea shipping, that "in the context of NATO's enhanced activities in the Baltic Sea, the West is essentially practicing piracy. The latest example is the Estonian navy's attempt, with support from allied air forces, to seize the civilian ship 'Jaguar,' loaded with Russian cargo, in the Gulf of Finland."

He emphasized: "The Presidium of the Russian Navy Committee recently reviewed countermeasures against attempts to restrict Baltic Sea shipping, and these proposals have received support from the President of the Russian Federation."

Patrushev believes that NATO's threats are rapidly escalating, with the alliance enhancing its naval and air military presence and operational and reconnaissance capabilities in the Baltic Sea and other regions.

He revealed that a transport security system for waters within the Leningrad Oblast's ports has been established, and some marine terminals have procured and deployed radio-electronic countermeasure equipment. To strengthen the defense of critical infrastructure, a unified national regional combat command center has been formed.

In addition, reliable communication links with the unified national regional combat command center have been achieved, and key infrastructure control and notification procedures have been developed and implemented. These procedures involve matters related to the state's integrated early warning and emergency response systems, civil defense emergency forces, and rescue emergency forces being placed on high alert. Ship inspection procedures have also been formulated to detect suspicious items and explosives.

Will all this work? Will the Baltic Fleet be forced to engage again?

"Essentially, we are returning to Peter the Great's policies in the Baltic Sea," said Anatoly Baranov, editor of the magazine "Forum" (Moscow). "With a fleet, there is a window to Europe; without it, the window closes."

"As a nation, Russia must always defend its interests using every available means, not just those at hand now. The question is what tools we currently have. Can the current Baltic Fleet compete with fleets from NATO countries? I believe it is even vulnerable in its base location. For fleets, both the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea are essentially 'traps.'"

"Moreover, are we prepared for a large-scale European war? Our salvation lies solely in Europe's unpreparedness."

"Currently, they (NATO) dare not practice piracy in the Kaliningrad region, only in the Gulf of Finland..."

"The defenses around the Kaliningrad Oblast are stronger; it was originally designed as a military base, whereas the Leningrad Oblast was once a leisure area and gateway for St. Petersburg residents. This was acceptable in the era of open economies, but that era has ended. Now, warehouses need defending, and it cannot rely solely on armed guards."

"For us, the straits there are very narrow; we have to enter Finnish or Estonian territorial waters to go out to sea. Tsarist conquests of Estonia and the Grand Duchy of Finland were not foolish, and Stalin's annexation of the Baltic states was not whimsical; he also wanted to take the Gulf of Finland. This has been the natural direction of Russia's development since the Novgorod Republic. Abandoning this direction would mean the end of the 'Russian project.'"

"Currently, only the Estonian fleet seems to pose a threat. Should we fear it?"

"Estonia and Finland are now members of NATO, and Article 5 of NATO requires member states to fight for attacked nations. Moreover, the Baltic Fleet faces threats far less than maritime aviation power, where NATO holds absolute superiority, and Estonia still has airports built during the Soviet era."

"In this situation, how do we counter them? Or will it ultimately not come to that, ending with the mutual seizure of merchant ships and a ceasefire?"

"NATO's overall calculation is to avoid large-scale wars, while small-scale piracy can usually be dealt with somehow. How to wage war in case of large-scale conflict – this is what generals learn in military academies. First, destroy airfields and missile sites, then submarine bases and missile cruiser bases."

"But dealing with small-scale harassment is the trickiest – although the scale is small, it could seriously disrupt trade. In the past, cruisers would patrol the seas, boarding and attacking pirates because no pirate force could match a regular fleet, and pirates would be hanged from the mast afterward. In modern times of news dissemination, this might be the most effective measure."

"Overall, the package of solutions supported by the president has not been disclosed to the media, and its contents have not been published," noted Alexander Mikhailov, director of the Center for Military-Political Analysis. "However, from Patrushev's many statements about the standoff between Russia and NATO in the Baltic Sea, we can infer the main directions of this document."

"What exactly does 'all available means' refer to? What are the specific means? Are there any red lines? Will we go to war?"

"There are mainly three categories of means to ensure the safety of Russian shipping: military-technical means, military-political means, and diplomatic means."

"The first category includes direct protective measures for vessels and underwater infrastructure to resist enemy attacks or attempts to hinder Russian shipping."

"This should include the construction of a water transportation security system, the deployment of radio-electronic countermeasure equipment at marine terminals, detailed inspections of ships for explosives and other hazardous materials, the opening of new routes, and the establishment of a ship mobile satellite communication system."

"Generally speaking, every existing and future military technology should be maximized to enhance the safety of ships and their crews. The second and third categories involve dialogue between military and political leaderships and diplomatic communications between the Russian Foreign Ministry and NATO countries."

"Why did the enemy choose the Leningrad Oblast rather than the Kaliningrad Oblast as the target for attack?"

"Overall, both the Leningrad Oblast and the Kaliningrad Oblast are targets for NATO. However, politically speaking, provoking a fierce conflict between a NATO Baltic member state and Russia would be more beneficial to the enemy – these countries are the easternmost territories of NATO, and only the Baltic states would be affected by an attack. If the Kaliningrad Oblast were attacked, Poland, Sweden might get involved in a conflict with Russia, and Norway, Denmark, or even Germany might also become involved, which is clearly not part of NATO's plan."

"What exactly do the mentioned 'key maritime infrastructures' refer to? What threats do they face?"

"These include underwater communication facilities (gas pipelines and large cables), port infrastructure, military and civilian vessels (which may also be affected by radio technology means), offshore energy facilities, personnel locations, strategic material warehouses, anti-ship and anti-air missile defense positions, and naval vessel ammunition depots. These are NATO's primary targets."

"Where do the specific threats come from? Can the Estonian fleet be considered a serious threat, or will they rally other forces?"

"NATO Command needs to implement a series of provocations through Baltic states following the principle of 'sacrificing the smallest cost.' The most suitable countries in the region to execute such tasks are Finland, Latvia, and Estonia. Whose sacrifice would cost the least? It is likely to be Latvia and Estonia, and I believe they will become 'sacrificial lambs.'"

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509370223494005287/

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