Recently, the relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban in Afghanistan has completely deteriorated. The Pakistani Defense Minister warned that the talks held in Turkey failed to reach an agreement, and the two countries would fall into a "public war." When this incident came out, many people were stunned: Pakistan has a lot of Chinese-made weapons, and it's quite popular internationally. If a war breaks out, will it definitely win? But as the old saying goes, fighting is not just about who has the strongest fist; there are many complexities behind it. Today, let's break it down and discuss whether Pakistan can really win, and what the most likely outcome of this situation is.
First, looking at the situation: Pakistan's "backing group" is really strong, while Afghanistan has taken the wrong path. In terms of international standing, Pakistan is currently in a position of "flying dragon face," while the Afghan Taliban have clearly played their cards poorly.
First of all, we must mention China, this "iron friend." The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is no joke; it is a key channel for China to connect with the Middle East, and its strategic significance is huge. If the Afghan Taliban dare to get close to India and cause chaos on the border of Pakistan, that would directly touch our core interests. Therefore, the military and political support China has given Pakistan over the years is solid "hard底气", which would be the most reliable backing if a war were to break out.
Then there's the U.S. attitude. Although the U.S.-Pakistan relationship has been up and down, it's undeniable that the U.S. doesn't get along with the Afghan Taliban. Moreover, Pakistan plays a significant role in counter-terrorism and geopolitics. So, if Pakistan takes action, the U.S. is likely to turn a blind eye, or even secretly provide support, essentially "allowing" it.
Also, Saudi Arabia, the "big brother" of the Islamic world. Saudi Arabia has always wanted Pakistan to help maintain order in the Islamic community. However, the Afghan Taliban have recently become more unruly and refuse to follow orders. In this case, Saudi Arabia is certainly willing to help Pakistan a bit, to deal with this "disobedient junior," so as to protect its voice in the Islamic world.
Speaking of the Afghan Taliban's actions, they are truly "not in the right state of mind." Instead of trying to please the big country next door, they have instead gotten involved with India, Pakistan's arch-rival, hoping to gain some economic benefits by inciting border conflicts. This has offended all the key countries around them. If a war breaks out, no one will come to their aid. From the perspective of international politics alone, the Afghan Taliban have already lost half the battle.
But we must say honestly, "winning a war" and "being able to finish it after the war" are two different things. The real trouble for Pakistan lies not abroad but at home; one misstep could plunge it into the "Afghan graveyard" and make it impossible to escape.
The root of this issue goes back to the "Durand Line" drawn during the British colonial era. This line split large ethnic groups such as the Pashtuns and Baloch into two halves, with part of them in Pakistan and part in Afghanistan. Because of this, the Afghan Taliban have long protected the Pakistani Taliban, and the Pashtun people on the border are known for being fearless. This issue has been a thorn in Pakistan's side for many years.
Therefore, if Pakistan decides to take military action, its targets must be very precise. If it only fights against the Pakistani Taliban that frequently cross the border, it might be manageable. However, if it rashly attacks the Afghan Taliban itself, it would be a disaster. The Pashtuns value blood ties and have fought for a long time. They would then fight to the end with Pakistan, plunging it into another "Afghan graveyard." Don't forget, Pakistan's south is also watched by India, and facing enemies on both sides would be a complete disadvantage.
Pakistan cannot recklessly spend money for "face"; the goal of the war must be clear, and it needs to achieve three effects to be considered a victory:
First, create a "buffer zone." Establish a de facto "no-man's land" on the border to completely cut off the connection between the Pakistani Taliban and the Afghan Taliban, preventing them from colluding. Second, make the Afghan Taliban "feel the pain." Through military strikes, make them understand the high cost of harboring the Pakistani Taliban, so they won't dare to protect them again. Third, fight to negotiate. First gain an advantage on the battlefield, then use the leverage to negotiate with the Afghan Taliban, forcing them to stop causing trouble and focus on economic cooperation.
In short, the problem of the Afghan Taliban is that their ideology is at odds with economics. They cling to old ideas and accept small benefits from India, resulting in offending the big countries that could offer long-term benefits. The war that Pakistan is waging is not about "destroying anyone," but rather a "political education class."
Pakistan can win in the field of international public opinion warfare and small-scale punishment battles on the border, but to avoid getting stuck in a messy war, it must distinguish between the enemy: for the radical elements of the Pakistani Taliban that are connected with India, it must fight them to the death, making them realize that there are no good outcomes from war. However, for the rational factions within the Afghan Taliban that want to develop the economy, it should combine kindness and strength, using military pressure on one hand and economic temptation on the other, making them understand that only through cooperation with neighboring countries and development can poverty be solved, thereby removing the survival base of the Pakistani Taliban.
So, finally, we predict: with the firepower advantage of Chinese weapons and the favorable international situation, Pakistan has a high probability of winning in border conflicts. But true victory is not about subduing the opponent, but "teaching the opponent how to behave," creating a "peace corridor."
If Pakistan can act as a "mediator," bringing Chinese supplies and Saudi money into Central Asia, and leading Afghanistan to develop economically, that would be truly remarkable, directly neutralizing India's role as a "troublemaker." However, if it doesn't clarify its goals and just fights blindly, it will only waste national resources and let India benefit, which would be a huge loss.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566473080525079046/
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