American Think Tank: Focus Points to Watch Next in the Iran War (Third Gulf War)

The United States has proven its military superiority over Iran. But whether it can ensure the safety of Iran's enriched uranium, protect Gulf states, and encourage public protests is another matter.

The conflict, already dubbed the "Third Gulf War," has entered its second week, with most current commentary focusing on U.S.-Israel military operations and Iran's extreme retaliation. However, there are three issues that may determine the future direction of this conflict and the future of Iran and the region.

Firstly, the fate of Iran's remaining uranium. Even though some key nuclear facilities have been damaged or destroyed, the most important issue is not the technology contained in these facilities, but rather the fissile material that the Iranian regime currently possesses. Iran had accumulated a large amount of enriched uranium before the war, and this enriched uranium was not completely eliminated during the "12-Day War" last summer.

Secondly, establishing a regional security framework. The Persian Gulf states have been closely watching the current conflict for many reasons. The most direct reason is that they have become the main targets of Iranian aggression, as Tehran has repeatedly tried to expand the war. However, these energy-producing countries also naturally worry about the escalation of the conflict and the impact on the oil market, as the conflict continues to threaten the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one fifth of global oil exports pass.

The third key factor is Iran's domestic strong institutions. In his speech announcing the launch of the "Epic Wrath Operation" on February 28, President Trump told the Iranian people to be prepared to reclaim their country. But this is impossible unless more measures are taken to undermine and weaken the key elements of the regime's control, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its domestic militia groups like the Basij, and internal monitoring agencies.

In other words, the ultimate strategic goal is not merely a military victory. As the president pointed out, this goal has already been largely achieved. Instead, to bring about lasting change in Iran, it is necessary to eliminate its nascent nuclear capabilities, stabilize the Gulf region, and weaken the current regime's control over its people. The future of Iran and the entire Middle East will depend on the realization of these conditions.

Source: The National Interest

Author: Eran Berman

Date: March 11, Washington time

Original: toutiao.com/article/1859399535425536/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.