The "Pacific Polarity" podcast, launched on December 15th, features a dialogue between French entrepreneur and geopolitical observer Arnaud Bertrand and host Li Zexi, discussing the impact of the new U.S. National Security Strategy on the Asia-Pacific situation.

Arnaud Bertrand believes that the recent inappropriate remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Hayashi Asako are themselves a signal of the U.S. withdrawal.

"When your 'protector' (a term used in the new U.S. National Security Strategy) indicates that it may reduce its protection of you, or that this protection becomes increasingly conditional," Arnaud Bertrand pointed out, "then you yourself will become more panicked, or more hardened, even belligerent."

Arnaud Bertrand cited the statement from the U.S. National Security Strategy: "We want to protect you, but you also need to do your part."

He believes this situation is becoming evident in Europe and Japan. In Europe, anyone paying attention to the news can almost daily hear European leaders taking extremely hard stances on Russia, proposing various new tough measures, increasing defense spending, etc.

Arnaud Bertrand said that this is because the U.S. has indicated that it may withdraw from NATO, or at least imply this, and that its protection has become conditional.

"I think the situation in Japan is similar, which is also the reason behind the prime minister's inappropriate statements. I think they (Japanese politicians) believe this is what the U.S. wants to hear."

He added that the interaction dynamics between China and the U.S. also affect the regional situation.

"We have found this year that China has enormous influence. Because, the U.S. has repeatedly tried to impose its will on China, whether through tariffs, additional sanctions, or initiatives to tax Chinese ships docking at ports or charge them high fees. But each time, China has made them abandon these measures because China itself has influence."

On October 28, 2025, in Yokosuka, Japan, U.S. President Trump, during his visit to the U.S. Navy Yokosuka base, spoke with Japanese Prime Minister Hayashi Asako on the USS George Washington aircraft carrier. IC Photo

Arnaud Bertrand mentioned that after Hayashi Asako made the wrong statements, Chinese and U.S. leaders had a phone call. Within less than 24 hours after the call, Trump called Japan, asking them to calm down and moderate their words. Arnaud Bertrand believes this is undoubtedly because China has some kind of influence over the U.S., otherwise why would Trump specially "kiss up to China"?

Arnaud Bertrand believes that in the long run, China will not try to implement policies like the Monroe Doctrine in the region. In fact, promoting the Monroe Doctrine goes against China's interests. However, the trend is that the U.S. will somewhat withdraw from the region, or at least increasingly accommodate China and take into account China's interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

This article is an exclusive article from the Observer, and it cannot be reprinted without authorization.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7584412475571880448/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.