[Text/Observer Network Qi Qian] After US President Trump introduced the so-called "reciprocal tariff" in early April, Trump and White House officials frequently boasted publicly that dozens of countries were lining up to negotiate with the United States. Recently, the White House has hinted that it is about to reach tariff agreements with Japan and India.
The White House sounds confident, but the reality is far from it. According to a report by Politico on April 22, a source familiar with the White House's negotiation situation revealed that so far, the U.S. negotiation teams with Japan and India have only reached a general "framework" of the agreement, as the details are very tricky, and finalizing the agreement may take several months.
Three sources familiar with the matter said that White House officials are working hard to sign "memorandums of understanding" or general "frameworks" with Japan and India rather than comprehensive trade agreements. One person admitted that the relevant matters are "extremely complicated," and it may take several months to finalize the agreement.
Trump and his officials have repeatedly claimed publicly that they plan to negotiate separate agreements with trading partners within the 90-day tariff suspension period.
Politico believes this is the clearest signal so far indicating how the Trump administration wants to address this daunting task: to make businesses and financial markets believe that the trade war is nearing its end, avoiding greater market shocks in the coming months, Trump decided to reach nominal agreements with various countries that lack specific details.
The report noted that it remains unclear to what extent this move will calm the market and avoid political backlash against ongoing economic turmoil. Affected by the so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy, the U.S. stock market has been volatile for the past two weeks, and U.S. Treasury bonds have seen panic selling.
Another person familiar with the "framework" of the agreement Trump's administration is striving to reach said: "I wouldn't even call it an agreement (deal). Basically, it's just a consensus (agreement) we hope to discuss reaching." The person added, "They will start putting forward a bunch of things and say, 'Look, we're signing something, we'll start negotiations.'"
On the 21st, Modi met with the Vance family visiting India - Modi X account
The report mentioned that Vice President Vance's speech in India on the 22nd implied this approach.
At the time, Vance said that the U.S.-India "are working to reach a trade agreement," and pointed out that he had made "very good progress" with Indian Prime Minister Modi during their meeting on the 21st. The office of the U.S. vice president issued a statement saying that the U.S. and India have finalized the "terms of reference" (terms of reference) for the negotiations, but refused to reveal the具体内容.
Both the White House and the Indian government described the negotiations as having achieved "significant progress," and similarly did not disclose specific details.
Regarding U.S.-Japan negotiations, the Japanese Embassy in the United States declined to comment. However, the Japanese government has insisted in recent weeks that it will not rush into a trade agreement with the U.S. On the 21st, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that Japan does not intend to "obey" the U.S. in tariff negotiations.
Shinzo Abe on the 21st: We do not intend to obey the U.S. - Kyodo News
President Trump of the United States raised the tariff stick globally and announced the so-called "reciprocal tariff" on April 2. A week later, with the collapse of the financial market, Trump suspended tariffs for 90 days based on maintaining a 10% benchmark tax rate.
Politico called it the largest-scale trade protectionist action taken by the U.S. since the 1930s. Trump argued that it was crucial for addressing trade imbalances and promoting the return of manufacturing, but this move shocked the world and caused a sharp decline in financial markets. Some economists pointed out that uncertainty in the U.S. economy continues, and consumer confidence in the economy has dropped significantly over the past three months, which could trigger a recession.
In times of market anxiety, the White House faces pressure to make substantive progress on trade agreements.
Kevin Madden, senior partner at the U.S. business advisory firm Penta Group, said: "A series of economic indicators are putting pressure on the market, business leaders and investors are looking for signs of progress. Trump's allies in Congress hope to reach some broad frameworks. This at least helps provide some momentum and political breathing room for the current policy direction."
However, Wendy Cutler, former negotiator at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, pointed out that empty agreement frameworks are of no use because speed may mean insufficient thoroughness in negotiations and lack lasting impact.
Cutler further explained: "If the president believes that these tariffs have a significant influence on us, then why not spend some time carefully considering the demands we are making to these countries so that we can reach meaningful agreements. These agreements will be enduring and continue to guide our trade and investment relations in the coming years, rather than one-off agreements that may be more transactional in nature."
It is worth noting that in recent days, multiple foreign media outlets cited reports that the Trump administration is preparing to exert pressure on other countries in tariff negotiations, requiring them to limit their trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions from the U.S.
Politico also mentioned that people familiar with the U.S.-India and U.S.-Japan negotiations revealed that the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-India agreements would imply that the U.S. is their main trading partner rather than China. At the same time, there are warnings that such wording will be highly ambiguous.
The report reminded that while the U.S. thinks everything through, any agreement forcing other countries to limit their trade with China may face strong backlash. India and Japan both have deep economic ties with China. Meanwhile, China has warned against such coercive practices by the U.S., calling on all countries not to appease or compromise with the Trump administration.
On April 21, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the U.S.此举 is using the guise of "reciprocity" to promote hegemonism in the economic field and implement unilateral bullying. Appeasement brings no peace, and compromise earns no respect. Sacrificing others' interests for short-term private gain is akin to seeking trouble, ultimately resulting in both parties losing out, harming others without benefiting oneself.
The spokesperson emphasized that China firmly opposes any transaction that sacrifices Chinese interests. If such a situation arises, China will absolutely not accept it and will resolutely retaliate equally. China has the determination and capability to safeguard its own interests.
This article is an exclusive contribution by the Observer Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496414133013824054/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author. You are welcome to express your opinions by clicking the "thumbs up/thumbs down" button below.