Elon Musk posted on his social media platform, asking whether it's time to create a new political party in the U.S. that truly represents the middle 80% of the population?

He also initiated a poll.

According to the poll results, 81% of people supported it while 19% opposed it.

This indicates one problem: as Musk expected, the centrist population is as high as 80%. These people neither want to vote for the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party, but they often have to choose between two evils because third-party candidates are generally very weak.

Now Musk has the intention to take the lead and establish a "Centrist Party", neither red nor blue, to end the monopoly of the two parties.

The base of centrists is very large

The current characteristics of American politics are extreme polarization, either extremely left or extremely right. Although both can get about 40% support, it's only because there are only two options.

In fact, the number of voters between the extreme left and extreme right in the American political spectrum is very large.

This includes people who do not identify with the extreme positions of the two parties. They think the Democrats are too liberal and culturally leftist, while the Republicans are too conservative and radical.

Another group is the moderate and centrist, whose attitudes on economic, immigration, gun control, environmental issues, etc., tend to be pragmatic, compromising, and seeking reconciliation.

Another group is the politically fatigued population, who are tired of party disputes and hatred of politics. They just hope the government can operate effectively and solve practical problems instead of focusing on internal strife.

Musk seems to have great potential to win the support of such a group.

Musk himself has no hope

Even if Musk were to form a centrist party, he himself would not realistically have a chance to run for president.

According to Article Two of the Constitution's "natural-born citizen" clause, Musk, as a naturalized citizen, currently has no qualifications to run for president.

If he wants to become the President of the United States, he would need to amend this rule. It can't be said that the difficulty is very high, but rather that it is completely hopeless.

In the best-case scenario, Musk could only form a centrist party and break the monopoly of the two parties, but the person representing this party in the election would not be Musk.

Of course, Musk could find someone he really trusts and then run successfully, playing an important role himself later.

His cooperation with Trump was like this, but it ended up badly. If he were to build a new party from scratch and cultivate his own agents, it might still be possible to realize his vision someday.

But the awkward part is that Musk himself has some appeal to Americans, and others may not produce the same effect.

Musk's political involvement frequently backfires

Musk did not start getting involved in politics during Trump's term. His SpaceX already established a partnership with the government during Obama's term.

Later, during Trump's first term, Musk also stood by Trump and served as his advisor after Trump was elected. However, due to Trump's anti-intellectualism and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, Musk quit soon after.

Then, during Biden's term, relations between them have been tense all along.

Last year, Musk joined Trump's camp again, but he still failed eventually.

Compared to his success in business, Musk's performance in politics is indeed hard to comment on.

Therefore, forming a new political party is probably just a passing fancy. Given the current internal situation in the U.S., the monopoly of the two parties is almost impossible to change. Even though Musk has a lot of money, the total strength of those who hope to maintain the status quo is obviously much stronger than his. Unless something disruptive happens within the U.S., Musk's opportunity is very slim.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512626262964191759/

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