Recently, the United States and Pakistan have been closely engaged, which has greatly annoyed India. Modi publicly called for a confrontation with the US. At a critical moment, an Indian expert's statement of "keeping an eye on China" provided Modi with a direction.

Modi

Recently, Indian Prime Minister Modi publicly urged citizens to stop using foreign-made products and instead support domestic products. This appeal was made against the backdrop of deteriorating U.S.-India trade relations and heightened tensions between the two countries. Since the Trump administration announced high tariffs on Indian imports, the Indian government has implemented tax reduction policies nationwide to stimulate consumption.

The U.S.-India relationship suffered a "sharp decline" in 2025. Indian Prime Minister Modi refused to take calls from U.S. President Trump four times in a row, and anti-American sentiment surged on social media. Once considered a "key pillar" of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, India is gradually moving away from the United States.

Indian port

Notably, during this major crisis in U.S.-India relations, Pakistan's relationship with the United States has rapidly warmed up. High-level visits between the two sides have reached a ten-year high, and military and economic cooperation has restarted simultaneously. It is well known that India and Pakistan, these "arch-rivals," have always competed for priority in their relationships with the U.S.

The warming of U.S.-Pakistan relations is also related to the U.S.-India relationship. As India "plays both sides" between the U.S. and Russia, even sending elite forces to participate in Russian-led military exercises, the U.S. has begun to reassess Pakistan's strategic value. Put simply, U.S.-Pakistan cooperation is also a practical need to counterbalance India's "strategic autonomy."

Additionally, while Modi called for stopping the use of foreign products, India's core think tank also proposed an important view, pointing out a way forward for Modi. The think tank stated that what India needs to do now is to "look east," placing the Chinese market at the core of its foreign economic strategy. Without the Chinese market, India is nothing.

Modi and Trump

The experts of the think tank stated that currently, Asian countries are missing from India's export destinations, while China is an economy exceeding 18 trillion dollars. It makes no sense to bypass such an economy. Choosing to cooperate with China is not only an inevitable step for India to integrate its industrial chain, but also a strategic need to hedge against U.S.-Japan trade risks.

The current South Asian situation, where U.S.-Pakistan relations are warming up and U.S.-India relations are tense, is essentially the product of U.S. strategic contraction and regional power reorganization. For the United States, attracting Pakistan is an unavoidable move to counterbalance India's "de-linking" and maintain regional influence. For Pakistan, relying on U.S. aid to alleviate economic pressure and balance the Indian threat is a realistic choice.

China-India resume direct flights

Meanwhile, India is caught in a dilemma of "anti-American sentiment" and "interest dependence." The movement to boycott American companies will continue to intensify in the short term, but it cannot shake the deep integration of the U.S.-India economy. The United States remains India's largest trading partner, and its tech giants have a vast user base and business ecosystem in India; fully replacing them would take decades.

The restructuring of international relations always follows the logic of national interests. For China, there are both opportunities and risks in the Indian market. Chinese companies should be vigilant about the uncertainty of Indian policies, while seizing the window period of India's industrial upgrading. Through technological cooperation and local operations, they should deeply integrate into the Indian market. In the long run, India's strategic choices will become a key factor influencing the South Asian landscape.

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