[By Guancha Net columnist Han Yue]
Thai Prime Minister Peotongtan, the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, is now in a difficult situation and seems to have lost her support.
Now, the Thai military, establishment parties, Yellow Shirts, pro-American opposition parties, as well as Hun Sen and his son in Cambodia are all working together to get her out of office.
The prime minister's office has been surrounded by protesters, and Peotongtan herself has no means of resistance and can only fully admit her mistake, tearfully apologizing to the Thai people and the military with sincere apologies.
All of this started with a phone call.
On June 19, 2025, Bangkok, Thailand, Peotongtan held a press conference to apologize to the Thai public regarding the leaked audio of her conversation with Hun Sen. Visual China
Who was behind the leak of the phone call?
A few days ago, armed conflicts broke out between Thai and Cambodian troops on the border. The Thai military killed a Cambodian officer.
Tensions between the two countries escalated rapidly: today they blockade the borders, tomorrow they boycott goods, and the day after that they take it to the international court. Both sides have increased their troop deployments at the border, ready for a major confrontation.
However, there is a serious disagreement within the Thai military and government over the strategy towards Cambodia.
Thaksin, Peotongtan, and Hun Sen have good private relations. When Thaksin was ousted from power, Hun Sen hired him as an advisor while he was in exile. Therefore, the For Thais Party, which is controlled by Thaksin, has always advocated friendly relations with Cambodia, calling for peace and common development.
In contrast, the military advocates a tough stance against Cambodia, strengthening its forces, and relying on Thailand's overwhelming military strength to teach Cambodia a lesson.
At that time, the Thai government was facing severe internal unrest, with the ruling coalition's top party, For Thais, and the second-largest party, Proud Thailand, openly breaking apart. The Thai government was in turmoil and preoccupied with its own affairs.
With the worsening relations between Thailand and Cambodia, For Thais, which advocates friendly relations with Cambodia, became labeled as traitors. In a desperate attempt to quell the fire, the military tried every means to escalate the conflict at the border, constantly provoking Cambodia to make things worse.
In a critical moment, Peotongtan personally called Hun Sen.
In the call, Peotongtan took a humble stance, roughly saying something like: "Uncle Hun, let's calm down and not fall into someone else's trap. The Second Military Region of Thailand is our archenemy. What the military leaders said that upset you is not our intention..."
Then, an unimaginable scene occurred.
Hun Sen, surprisingly, sold out this "good niece" of his.
After the call ended, Hun Sen recorded the entire conversation and sent it to dozens of high-ranking officials in Cambodia.
As a result, the phone call quickly leaked out, causing a huge stir in Thailand.
Although everyone knows what's going on behind the scenes, knows the military is stirring up trouble, and knows that Thaksin and the Second Military Region are opponents—however, the problem is that during the conflict between the two countries, it is highly "politically incorrect" for the prime minister of one country to speak ill of their own army in front of another country's ruler.
In times of heightened national sentiment, Peotongtan stepped on a big landmine.
Thus, all the factions in Thailand who have long disapproved of Thaksin launched a full-scale offensive, unanimously demanding Peotongtan's resignation under the pretext of "disgracing national dignity," with demonstrators surrounding the prime minister's office.
On June 7, the Royal Thai Army issued a statement stating that due to the escalation of tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border, the Thai Army will adopt stronger countermeasures and may close the Thai-Cambodian border checkpoints depending on the situation. China Daily
Thai Military: A Bad Omen for the Thaksin Family
Let’s talk about the relationship between the Thai military and the Thaksin family first.
Everyone knows that the Thai military is a political force independent of the government, which doesn’t listen to the government at all. If they don't overthrow the government, it's already good enough.
Many people think that the military is behind the Thai king, but this is a misunderstanding. Since 1932, Thailand has been under military rule for a long time, and the king's control over the military is nominal.
Of course, the military is not a monolithic block; there are complex factions within it.
More than ten years ago, when Thaksin's sister Yingluck was the prime minister, she intended to support the Second Military Region (the strongest eastern defense force of Thailand against Cambodia) to balance the First Military Region then in power.
As a result, General Prayut and General Prayut of the Second Military Region quickly overthrew Yingluck's government after taking office.
Last year, the For Thais Party finally came to power, and Thaksin returned. He began to befriend another faction of the military to jointly suppress the "Dual Prayut Generals" of the Second Military Region, gradually pushing them out of politics.
But it cannot be said that Thaksin has the support of the military—the military only uses him for internal struggles. In fact, the mainstream faction of the military has little goodwill toward Thaksin. The disempowered Second Military Region hates him even more. This time, they seized a great opportunity to provoke a conflict with Cambodia, naturally wanting to crush him. The more tense the situation between Thailand and Cambodia becomes, the greater the pressure on Peotongtan's government.
Since the clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, Thai border troops have completely ignored government orders, closing the border, cutting off electricity and internet, and continuously deploying troops for exercises. They have "showed their strength" to Cambodia. Later, when Cambodia made concessions and withdrew troops from the disputed border areas, the commander of the Second Military Region still publicly made provocative statements, saying that "Thailand is ready for battle," which greatly angered Hun Sen.
From the content of the "Peotongtan phone call" and subsequent developments, we can draw clear conclusions:
The Thai military, at least some factions of it, is completely beyond the control of the For Thais Party government and is in sharp opposition to the government, threatening the survival of the ruling party. The For Thais Party government is completely helpless before the military and can only submit instantly.
Now, Peotongtan can only humbly apologize to the commander of the Second Military Region and directly fly to the eastern front to "personally clarify" her inappropriate remarks to the border generals.
For a prime minister of a country to personally go and apologize to a general of the border army, you can imagine how uncomfortable this prime minister must feel, and how humble the Thai civil administration is compared to the military.
This is the true portrayal of the relationship between the Thai prime minister, the Thai government, and the Thai military.
What does Hun Sen gain?
It is understandable for the military to try to get rid of Thaksin and Peotongtan.
Why did Hun Sen do this?
Clearly, Hun Sen is good friends with Thaksin. Clearly, the For Thais Party, which advocates friendly relations with Cambodia, is Cambodia's greatest strategic asset in Thailand. The premier calls you "uncle," so why sell out Peotongtan in the end?
In March 2024, Hun Sen (second from left) visited Thailand to see Thaksin Shinawatra (third from left), who had just been released on parole. Peotongtan (first from left) was also present. Hun Sen Facebook account
The current main speculation is that Hun Sen wants to use this move to create chaos in Thailand, thereby weakening it.
In fact, the situation might be more complicated.
Illicit industries such as black markets, smuggling, casinos, and telecom fraud are rampant in the Cambodian border regions, and Hun Sen's family is involved in many of these activities. Therefore, Hun Sen's biggest pain point is not territorial disputes but the flow of people and the supply of electricity networks along the Thai-Cambodian border.
Thus, territorial disputes are just a slogan used by Hun Sen to rally internal support. When he discovered that the military had blocked the border, he could only exert "remote pressure" on the Thai military through Thaksin. If his demands are not met, he will "intensify the pressure" on Thaksin and even sell out the Thaksin family to negotiate with the "real negotiators" in Thailand.
On the other hand, Peotongtan is relatively naive and never imagined that Hun Sen would pull such a trick. She poured out her heart and soul, only to have her sincere feelings misused, ending up being "a person who is not respected inside or outside."
No matter where Thailand goes, the trust between Thaksin and Hun Sen has completely collapsed. If Peotongtan steps down, and the Thaksin family is once again expelled from Thai politics, Hun Sen will find himself at a disadvantage in his dealings with Thailand. Of course, Hun Sen may not care; perhaps he just wants to skim some profits and stage a play with the Thai military.
Peotongtan: How Many More Days Can She Be Prime Minister?
Stung by Hun Sen and under constant surveillance by the military, Peotongtan's situation is really dangerous.
The Yellow Shirts (royalist faction) and Orange anti-government groups (pro-American liberal faction) have clearly spoken out, demanding Peotongtan's resignation.
The Proud Thailand Party, which recently broke away from For Thais, naturally hopes for Peotongtan's downfall and even the collapse of the entire For Thais Party influence.
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (center) and his daughter Peotongtan Shinawatra (right)
Peotongtan has only a few options ahead:
Resign and select another person from For Thais to serve as prime minister; or form a coalition government with the opposition, handing over the premiership to the opposition;
Or, hold on without stepping down, sever ties with Cambodia entirely, and make significant compromises with various factions within Thailand to break out of her current predicament.
But none of these options are easy. Given Thailand's current situation and the patterns of Thai politics over the past twenty years, it seems that this young female prime minister, born in the 1980s, is truly in danger.
This bizarre "phone scandal" is, on the surface, an unusual political conspiracy, but essentially, it is the inevitable failure of a political strongman attempting to disrupt the deep-rooted political ecosystem in Thailand.
Peotongtan is merely Thaksin's "white glove" or a protégé to be nurtured, and Thaksin himself is no more than a hired manager brought into the upper echelons of Thai society. Thaksin always hopes to break this pattern and become the majority shareholder with decisive power in this company that can dismiss him at any time.
Whether it's royal authority, military power, or financial power, Thailand has never had a stable core capable of leading the nation firmly forward. The factions that hold power always neglect the overall interests of the nation and race against time to monetize their temporary power, endlessly devouring each other. No one can accomplish anything, but they are very good at squeezing out those who want to get things done.
Thaksin, who is unlucky in timing, lacks the ability to break this pattern and has no capability to drag the country out of its predicament. His daughter has become another "one-way ticket" in this endless game machine, triggering yet another "GAME OVER" response.
Only those who truly have the ability to promote economic growth, implement projects, enrich the country, and stabilize the four corners have the right to remain at the table of history. When will Thailand see such a day?
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518203792270885403/
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