Reference News Network, December 6 report. According to Brazil's 247 website, on December 2, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its growth forecast for China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 to 5%. This figure is 0.1 percentage points higher than the estimate announced in September.
According to the OECD, in the first three quarters of 2025, China's economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year, mainly due to the expansion of durable consumer goods update plans such as automobiles and home appliances, which boosted domestic consumption.
The institution also emphasized that China's fiscal policy remained expansionary in 2025, with more measures introduced to promote income and consumption growth.
It's not only the OECD that holds an optimistic view of China's economy. Global financial institutions such as Standard Chartered and Goldman Sachs have also raised their forecasts and reiterated that China's fundamentals remain solid.
Standard Chartered raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2026 from 4.3% to 4.6%, citing improved total factor productivity and strong exports.
Some media quoted analysts as reporting that China's exports are expected to remain strong, with policies continuing to support domestic demand, especially consumption.
Standard Chartered also pointed out that progress in the field of artificial intelligence will continue to drive productivity improvements.
Goldman Sachs raised its real GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.9% to 5.0%, and made a more significant upward adjustment to GDP growth expectations for the next two years.
Analysts believe that these positive adjustments reflect the growing understanding of the structure of China's economy by global institutions.
Experts said that large foreign financial institutions have a deep understanding of China's institutional advantages, vast market, and solid foundation. Their positive expectations highlight confidence in China's high-quality development.
Meng Lei, China equity strategy analyst at UBS Securities, said that due to the rise in nominal GDP growth and the narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which boosted corporate revenue growth, the introduction of supportive policies and the promotion of "anti-entanglement" initiatives are driving a recovery in profit margins. The growth rate of earnings for A-shares is expected to rise from 6% this year to 8% in 2026.
China's macroeconomic prospects show continued signs of improvement. In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that industrial activity is recovering.
In terms of policy, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, held in October, adopted the "Suggestions of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," clearly stating that high-quality development must be adhered to in economic and social development over the next five years.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China contributed about 30% of global growth, consolidating its position as a stabilizing force in the world economy. Analysts expect this momentum to continue in the next five years.
Experts pointed out that one of China's strategic tasks in 2026 is to build a modern industrial system and consolidate the foundation of the real economy. The contribution of consumption to economic growth is expected to increase, and industrial investment and R&D investment are also expected to grow. (Translated by Liu Lifu)
Original: toutiao.com/article/7580646679460725290/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.