Seven experts on the Korean Peninsula from the United States were interviewed in succession. The U.S. has cycled the deployment of some Patriot missiles stationed in South Korea to the Middle East, with systems such as THAAD and Cheongung forming the core of a joint anti-North Korea air defense network. This measure was implemented at a time when the Trump administration hinted at "restructuring roles," ... "This is a significant move in response to the enhanced threat from North Korea... It requires careful consideration," there are also opposing views: "This is just a temporary adjustment of priorities and not a signal to South Korea,".

On April 4th, it was learned that South Korea and the U.S. reached an agreement on the measures to transfer some of the Patriot missile launchers deployed for intercepting North Korean missiles to the Middle East. Diplomatic sources stated: "Last month, South Korea and the U.S. agreed to transfer some launch platforms to the 'Middle East'." This is part of President Donald Trump's trend of strengthening airstrikes against the Houthi rebels while concentrating major assets such as the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier and F-35 fighter jets in the Middle Eastern region. However, this "temporary rotational deployment" was carried out at a time when the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Forces Korea hinted at potential role adjustments after the Trump administration took office. On March 3rd, this newspaper consecutively contacted Washington-based Korean Peninsula experts who said: "The U.S. considers South Korea as a component of its global strategy, and this may be a thought-provoking move for the alliance." That is to say, the combat capabilities stationed in allied countries may also change at any time according to needs.

The interception height of the surface-to-air missile Patriot is 15-40 kilometers, serving as one of the core systems of the South Korea-U.S. joint air defense network, together with THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, interception height 40-150 kilometers) and Cheongung-II (15-20 kilometers). Currently, the U.S. operates a mixed system of 12 launchers including PAC-2 and PAC-3, which are dispersedly deployed in locations such as Osan and Pyeongtaek. Military officials stated: "Primarily, it serves the purpose of guarding U.S. bases, but the core interception system being cycled outside the Korean Peninsula is quite rare." On March 30th, U.S. NBC cited three government officials reporting that General Harkerth approved the transfer of at least two Patriot launcher units from Asia to the Middle East. During this period, evidence supporting this view includes the discovery of over 15 tactical transport aircraft, Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, landing at Osan Air Base and then flying to Bahrain. Military experts even raised the possibility of redeploying some THAAD systems to Seongju in Gyeongsangbuk-do, but confirmation has yet to be obtained.

Bruce Klingner, senior researcher at the Center for Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation, stated: "This will reduce the alliance's defensive capability against North Korean missile threats and conflicts with the Trump administration's commitment to prioritize the Indo-Pacific region, making this a significant move. North Korea has significantly strengthened its short-range and medium-range missile forces capable of attacking South Korea. These include missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads as well as hypersonic missiles equipped with maneuverable warheads." That is to say, under the continuous reckless development of North Korean nuclear missiles, the "flexibility" of U.S. forces stationed in South Korea and the deployment of some assets outside the Korean Peninsula might send wrong signals to countries like North Korea. Patrick Cronin, director of the Asia-Pacific Security Studies at the Hudson Institute, said: "U.S. assets are not permanently fixed in specific regions; they may be deployed to the most urgent areas according to strategic requirements. For the South Korea-U.S. alliance, the decision to redeploy should undergo thorough coordination between the Combined Command and high-level decision-makers. I am confident that the alliance can deter North Korean attacks, but the military balance in the Asia-Pacific region is changing, so it requires careful consideration."

On the contrary, Bruce Bennett, senior researcher at the RAND Corporation, said: "The Department of Defense wisely recognizes that the conflict with the Houthis is likely to continue for some time. Due to insufficient military strength built up during peacetime to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously, only the Patriots stationed somewhere around the world can be transferred to the Middle East. This will not become as big a problem as it sounds." Sydney Seiler, a Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), stated: "Although missile defense on the Korean Peninsula is a more pressing issue, I do not believe this is a signal to South Korea. We have concluded that the threat there [in the Middle East] is severe enough, and the risks associated with defending South Korea are controllable." David Maxwell, a senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said: "Patriot missile systems and others have significant demand worldwide, and the Department of Defense faces difficulties in deciding where to deploy them. This is merely a readjustment of strategic resource priorities and should not be interpreted as a weakening of the U.S.'s commitment to protect South Korea."

Andrew Yoo, senior researcher at the Center for Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, said: "Defense Secretary and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff nominee and other U.S. military leaders consider North Korea a substantive threat. The South Korean military has sufficient strength to resist North Korea's conventional attacks, but there are no corresponding allies or partners in the Middle East. Instead of withdrawing support or defense commitments to the Korean Peninsula, it is better to address the Houthi crisis to prevent potential conflicts from escalating. Given the assumption that the U.S. Department of Defense and the administration's China hawks focus more on the Indo-Pacific than other regions, this should be an interesting move." "The Obama administration attempted to pivot from the Middle East to Asia, and at least now it appears to be a limited re-pivot back to the Middle East."

In the "Temporary Defense Strategy Guidance" document issued by Defense Secretary Pete Harkerth in February this year, the U.S. prioritized Taiwan Strait contingencies and homeland defense, with alliances leading the containment of North Korea and Russia, among others, which sparked controversy.

Victor Cha, a Korea expert at CSIS, said: "It's difficult for me to discuss specific cases. South Korean security planners assume that the Trump administration considers South Korea as a component of its global strategy, not just limited to the Korean Peninsula, thus increasing the necessity of operating 'forces'. To better respond to the challenge from China, the U.S. is restructuring 'forces'. Given that the South Korean military is strong and capable, there is hope that South Korea can autonomously replace additional resources such as Patriot missiles."

Source: Chosun Ilbo

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