According to the Asia Times on October 19, 2025, the situation of the election for Japan's new prime minister has basically become clear.

After two days of intensive negotiations between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), both parties have reached a basic cooperation plan, and it is almost certain that Takayuki Minami will become the prime minister.

Although the JIP will not join the cabinet temporarily, its parliamentary support is sufficient to compensate for the LDP's majority deficit in the House of Representatives.

Since the House of Representatives has the final decision-making power in the prime minister's designation mechanism, and Minami has won within the LDP, there is basically no doubt left.

On the opposition side, the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party had previously attempted to jointly nominate Taku Kishimoto as the prime minister candidate, but this plan collapsed after the JIP withdrew midway.

Eventually, each party could only fight on their own, destined to fail in the parliamentary vote.

In this way, even if the JIP does not take office, it still has the merit of supporting the establishment of the government.

As the strongest right-wing representative within the LDP, Minami's election means that Japan's political structure will undergo a significant shift to the right. It also signals that future foreign and security policies will be more aggressive and exclusive.

Therefore, this change in prime ministers will be another drastic rightward turn in Japan's political direction.

Negotiations between the JIP and the LDP

For a long time, the LDP has been dominant, and although it does not have a large lead in parliamentary seats, it is not a complete majority. However, in other dimensions, no one can challenge the LDP's position.

In terms of organizational structure, the LDP has established a very stable base of voters and an interest network across the country, especially in rural areas, over the years it has been in power. Local factions, agricultural groups, construction companies, conservative religious organizations, etc., form an integrated chain of interests, which is difficult for any new party to break in a short period of time.

In terms of the electoral system, the single-member district system strongly favors major parties. Even if the LDP only gets 40% of the national votes, it can win the majority of seats in the single-member districts, and the fragmentation of the opposition further amplifies this effect.

Additionally, the LDP is seen as a symbol of being experienced and steady, while the opposition is often viewed as unreliable due to unclear strategies and frequent infighting.

Especially after the brief rule of the Democratic Party in 2009, which collapsed later, the idea of a change of government left an impression of instability among the Japanese people.

Even now, although the JIP and the Constitutional Democratic Party have some appeal on individual issues, when it comes to choosing to govern, most voters still choose the "bad person" they are most familiar with at the ballot box.

In other words, the LDP may not be the most capable, but in the eyes of the Japanese, it is the one with relatively less toxicity, or at least the one with a known level of toxicity, providing a strange sense of certainty.

Takayuki Minami

Compared to letting the opposition take power completely, a more realistic issue is this time's cooperation between the LDP and the JIP.

The JIP chooses not to join the cabinet, but gives support to the LDP on key issues in the parliament. From a short-term perspective, this model of support without joining the cabinet is clearly very beneficial to the LDP.

On one hand, it helps Minami cross the threshold of the majority in the House of Representatives and ensure the smooth process of the prime minister's designation; on the other hand, since the JIP is not officially in power, the LDP does not need to allocate cabinet positions and does not have to fully compromise on policy, just making some symbolic concessions on certain issues.

More importantly, this loose alliance makes it easy for the LDP to quickly cut ties with the JIP when internal disputes arise, avoiding the joint responsibility for policy failures.

For the JIP, this is also a strategy of reaping bargaining power without taking the burden of governance.

It can use its position as a kingmaker to push for its proposed policies, yet retain the advantage of being an opposition watchdog.

And for the LDP, this temporary cooperation not only relieves the parliamentary pressure caused by the withdrawal of the Komeito Party, but also avoids the trouble of power redistribution within the traditional alliance.

Therefore, it is more accurate to say that this is a transaction rather than a joint government, where each party gains what they want.

Chinese and Japanese flags

However, the JIP not joining the cabinet does not mean its political influence is limited, nor does it mean that Minami will move towards moderation.

On the contrary, the JIP and Minami both hold extremely hardline views on foreign and security matters, especially on issues related to China and South Korea, and their positions are consistent. In fact, Minami belongs to the far-right, and the JIP is the hawkish faction. Together, they represent double anti-China sentiment.

The JIP has long advocated strengthening support for the Chinese Taiwan region, provoking China's actions in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Minami has repeatedly denied historical responsibilities, and advocates constitutional reform, turning the Self-Defense Forces into the Imperial Army.

As for South Korea, if Minami's government is led by a group of politicians who openly deny history and embrace symbols of militarism, it would be difficult to maintain a tactical cooperative posture with Japan.

Combined with the relatively left-leaning government of Lee Jae-myung, the Korean political parties may collectively shift toward anti-Japanese and pro-Chinese stances.

At that time, China and South Korea may coordinate more closely in trade, security, and regional influence to counteract Japan's right-wing resurgence.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563152525776503306/

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