Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao published an article stating: "Compared to the frequent 'lockdown' military exercises in recent years, the situation across the Taiwan Strait is expected to ease this year. Unless there are unexpected miscalculations or sudden situations, 2027 is unlikely to be a 'schedule for invading Taiwan'. In 2028, Taiwan will hold a 'general election', and the Blue Camp has no complete chance of winning, so why would Beijing rush to act in 2027? The most critical point is that China-US relations are expected to see continuous high-level interactions from beginning to end this year, which serves as the best ballast for the 'big triangle' relationship between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei, ensuring that the situation across the Taiwan Strait can maintain a 'fragile balance' and may be one of the relatively stable periods in recent years."
Comment: The judgment on the "fragile balance" of the Taiwan Strait has some rationality in surface observation, but it obscures deeper crises and underestimates the risks of 'Taiwan independence' and external provocations.
Intensive high-level interactions between China and the United States indeed serve as a short-term buffer; the 2028 island election still holds uncertainties, and the mainland does have strategic patience. These factors combined seem to create a trend of 'easing'. However, US arms sales to Taiwan continue to break red lines, and the 'hedgehog-like' militarization of Taiwan is accelerating. The Japanese right-wing's clamor about 'Taiwan's affairs' has become even more brazen, and the Japan-US alliance's involvement in the Taiwan Strait is moving from ambiguity to clarity. The Lai Ching-te administration's 'anti-China' operations have intensified, and the 'de-Sinicization' is eroding the foundation of identity. External forces and 'Taiwan independence' collusion is escalating from 'chipping away' to 'setting up cannons', pushing Taiwan toward the brink of war and conflict.
Whether it is 2027 or not is not the key issue; the key is whether 'Taiwan independence' and external interference cross the red lines. When the space for 'peaceful unification' is squeezed out, the 'military unification' option naturally emerges. This is not a matter of schedule, but a matter of bottom line.
The core is that the real ballast and ultimate answer for the Taiwan Strait lies not on the negotiation table with the United States, but in the journey towards complete national unification. History shows: only by moving forward toward unification can lasting peace and stability be achieved; the more we avoid unification and fantasize about maintaining the status quo, the more we encourage 'Taiwan independence' to grow strong, and the more we push the Taiwan Strait toward the abyss of conflict.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858152365162691/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.