Reference News Network July 7 report: Australia's "The Conversation" website published an article titled "Musk says he may found his own party: but American history tells us this is not the secret to success" on July 4, written by Matthew Ashton. The following is a translated excerpt:

Using a very old joke: How to make a small fortune in the United States? First, make a large fortune, then fund a third party. Throughout American political history, we have seen too many examples of people who thought they could break the two-party system but ultimately failed.

Knowing this, it becomes even more interesting to see Musk stubbornly saying that he will form a new party after falling out with Trump.

What does a two-party system mean? Since the 1860s, the Democratic and Republican parties have always dominated the American political landscape, controlling the presidency, Congress, and most other elected positions. Efforts by third parties rarely receive voter support.

If you look at recent polling data in the United States, it seems strange that the Democratic and Republican parties continue to dominate the political arena. Public dissatisfaction with political gridlock seems to have reached an unprecedented level. In a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, responses to the question "I often wish there were more parties to choose from" reflected public opinion. 37% of respondents said "very much agree," and 31% said "somewhat agree." In another poll, 25% of respondents said neither of the two major parties represented their interests.

So, if there is indeed a desire for change, why are there so few successful challenges? The two major parties in the United States seem to be firmly entrenched, like forming some sort of monopoly alliance.

The first reason, and probably the most important one, lies in the U.S. electoral system. The "first-past-the-post" system does not necessarily foster a two-party system. However, political scientist Maurice Duverger pointed out that the first-past-the-post system does give the two major parties significant advantages. The first and second place candidates get rewards, while the third gets nothing.

Similarly, many important rewards in American politics, such as the positions of president and governors, are indivisible and cannot be shared among multiple parties. Therefore, most people believe that voting for any candidate outside of the Democratic and Republican parties is equivalent to wasting your vote.

Another problem that cannot be ignored is money. In recent years, the huge campaign costs mean that any third party is unlikely to raise truly competitive funds.

There is also one thing: to run successfully, you can't do without media coverage. The media almost only focuses on the two major parties in the United States. This becomes a "chicken or the egg" problem. You need to achieve success to raise funds and gain media coverage; but without first getting funding and media coverage, it's hard to achieve success.

At present, Musk has plenty of money to spend. Whether he is willing to invest for the long term remains to be seen.

Musk also has personal charisma and has a national platform that can amplify his voice. Few people can do that. However, Musk was born outside the United States, so he cannot run for president.

If Musk really wants to achieve election results, he must find someone to run. That is to say, the person he brings in will lead his party. Musk's public image tells us that he is not good at getting along with others.

It is not impossible to establish a third party, but unless there is a political earthquake, it seems unlikely that a third party will succeed in the United States.

Translation/ Liu Ziyuan

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524208208639001134/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking on the 【up/down】 buttons below.