Breaking News: Axios, a U.S. digital news media outlet, exclusively reported on May 6 that the United States and Iran have come closer than ever before since the war began to reach a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict.

Both sides have made concessions —

Iran suspends uranium enrichment activities

The U.S. lifts sanctions and releases frozen Iranian assets

Both sides remove navigation restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz

Washington expects Tehran to respond to key points within 48 hours.

Both parties are attempting to end the current war through a "one-page memorandum," but this is not a final agreement—it serves as a temporary framework to buy time for more difficult nuclear negotiations ahead.

If this memorandum is ultimately signed, it would mark a critical turning point in the months-long U.S.-Iran conflict.

This 14-point memorandum, negotiated by U.S. Middle East envoy Witekoff and Kushner with Iranian officials, is based on the core logic of temporarily halting hostilities and restarting talks:

Iran’s concessions: Suspension of all uranium enrichment activities (as demanded by the U.S. for at least 12 years), and agreement to accept UN “snap” inspections.

U.S. reciprocation: Lifting of sanctions and unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian overseas assets.

Core mechanism: Announcing an end to the war, followed by 30 days of detailed negotiations, gradually lifting restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. If negotiations fail, the U.S. military reserves the right to resume military operations.

The use of a "one-page" framework instead of a detailed treaty is designed to bypass the most contentious issues—but the real test lies in the next 48 hours (by May 8) and the subsequent 30-day negotiation period:

Iran’s red line: Iran’s Foreign Minister explicitly stated in Beijing that only a “fair and comprehensive agreement” will be acceptable. Hardliners within Iran may view a 12-year suspension of nuclear activities as tantamount to surrender.

U.S. leverage: Although Trump has paused the “Freedom Plan” escort operation, he emphasized that the blockade remains ongoing. U.S. officials have hinted that “if Iran violates the terms, the pause will be extended”—a classic “carrot and stick” approach.

Key variable: How Iran handles its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium (allegedly possibly transferred to the U.S.) will be the focal point of the negotiations.

This news suggests the most intense phase of the war may already be over, but whether peace can endure depends on whether both sides can reach a final, legally binding, detailed agreement on nuclear issues within 30 days. The market is currently pricing in a ceasefire, but if negotiations collapse later, volatility could surge again.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864437176215564/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author