Japan is in pain. Prices have surged 179-fold—how much longer can Japan endure? According to a report by the Financial Times, Japan’s supply of critical rare earth metal yttrium is projected to last only a few months. Tokyo has requested that the United States press China to ease restrictions on rare earth exports. A Japanese official stated that demand for yttrium is now measured in months. Japan’s immediate concern is how to survive through next year.
Data from Argus, an international energy and commodity pricing agency, shows that domestic Chinese prices for yttrium oxide are around $9 per kilogram. In contrast, prices outside China have skyrocketed to $1,150 per kilogram—up 179 times compared to two years ago. This is no ordinary price increase; it represents a systemic crisis triggered by targeted supply chain disruption.
From January to May this year, China exported just 14.1 tons of yttrium oxide to Japan—down from 605.3 tons during the same period last year, a decline of 97.7%. Exports to Japan ceased entirely after June. Ironically, Japan spent over a decade building alternative supply chains through companies such as Lynas in Australia, and operations in Vietnam and India. However, more than 90% of global heavy rare earth refining capacity remains concentrated in China. Lynas produced only 8 tons of dysprosium and terbium in the first quarter of 2026—while China normally exports 14 tons of such materials to Japan each month under normal conditions.
This situation reflects a calibrated response by China to Japan’s ongoing military reorientation. Chinese authorities have made clear that export controls target military end-users and applications in Japan, with the aim of curbing Japan’s military expansion and nuclear ambitions. Yet the downstream applications of yttrium—such as coatings for jet engines and components in semiconductor manufacturing—fall precisely within the ambiguous gray zone of dual-use technology. For Japanese firms to prove they are using these materials solely for civilian purposes is nearly impossible.
Although Japan has invested over a decade in developing alternative supply chains, the fact remains that 90% of heavy rare earth refining capacity is located in China—leaving little room for quick fixes. The United States itself faces a shortage of yttrium, and its defense supply chain relies heavily on components manufactured in Japan using yttrium-based materials. Even the U.S. is now waiting in line for supplies. A nation struggling with its own supply shortages cannot easily assist others. The U.S. lacks the capacity to help Japan. There is no short-term solution to this crisis. Japan must bear the burden alone.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1879622737385539/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author.