In the eyes of the top U.S. strategic think tank, CSIS, a blockade in the Taiwan Strait is not a science fiction exercise, but a real crisis that could erupt in 2028. Its latest report simulates various scenarios of the mainland's blockade of Taiwan through 26 rounds of military wargames. The report thoroughly analyzes the escalation path, military losses, and energy shocks, but upon closer examination, it reveals an underlying message: from the start, the situation is destined to favor the mainland, while the United States and its allies, although able to cause some disruption, will ultimately be left "helpless" — paying a high price for only a brief delay, with no ability to reverse the inevitable collapse of Taiwan. For Beijing, the blockade is not a low-risk gamble, but a stepping stone toward unification; for Washington, it could be the Waterloo of Pacific hegemony. Let's analyze this "insightful" report and uncover the "inevitable outcome" of the Taiwan Strait war.

CSIS sets four levels of intensity for the mainland's blockade:

Using coast guard and militia forces, conducting non-military boarding inspections;

Submarines and mines are used for covert interception;

Establishing no-sailing zones and implementing open kinetic strikes;

Expanding attacks on Taiwan itself, Guam, and even Japan.

The corresponding responses from the U.S. and Taiwan are also divided into four levels:

Taiwan authorities act only within 24 nautical miles;

Taiwan initiates active counterattacks;

The U.S. intervenes in the no-sailing zone;

U.S. military strikes against the mainland's territory.

The baseline scenario simulated over 20 weeks, covering multiple variations: basic conditions, prepared state, Taiwan reinforcing power, Japan assisting / neutral, and PLA anti-ship missile effectiveness. The report acknowledges that the blockade would create uncontrollable escalation pressure, often evolving into full-scale war. However, the mainland's initial advantages are evident: Taiwan's energy is highly vulnerable, with natural gas reserves only lasting 12 days, coal 45 days, and oil 146 days. Without U.S. intervention, Taiwan's natural gas would run out by the third week, coal by the ninth week, and electricity supply would drastically decline, leading to economic collapse inevitably.

Even in the "preparatory variant," where Taiwan stockpiles resources in advance, the time until natural gas runs out is extended to the twelfth week, but the electricity crisis still erupts by the eighteenth week. The report emphasizes that air transport or unconventional supplies cannot replace commercial ships; Taiwan needs 860 C-17 transport planes per day — which is unrealistic in actual combat, eventually reducing electricity to 20% of pre-war levels.

More notably, five "free-for-all" scenarios simulate "unrestricted"博弈 (competition). These scenarios expose the weaknesses of the U.S. and Taiwan: if the mainland acts decisively from the start, it is destined for victory.

The mainland first severely damages Taiwan's air force and navy, then expands to the energy system. U.S. escort convoys transport supplies from Japan, U.S. land-based anti-ship missiles land in Taiwan, but the navy must pause for a week to "catch its breath." The mainland retaliates against Guam and Japan, causing heavy losses to the U.S. and Japan: the U.S. loses 84% of 420 fighter jets, 34 major warships + 2 aircraft carriers are crippled, and bombers lose over one-third. Although China suffers heavy losses, it still has more than 1,000 fighter jets remaining (initially 1,200), making the Pacific almost a "no-man's land" for the PLA.

In the scenario of gradual escalation and limited Japanese participation, the mainland launches large-scale missile attacks on Taiwan, severely damaging the air force and navy and attacking Guam. By the fourth week, Japan is forced to participate in defense operations, and the mainland lands on Matsu Islands. While U.S. and Taiwanese losses remain significant, the loss of U.S. aircraft and warships decreases slightly. The report concludes that this is "unfavorable for the mainland" — precisely indicating that the "drop-by-drop strategy" is not advisable; if you're going to fight, you should strike decisively, not wait for U.S. and Taiwanese fleets to break through before acting.

After the outbreak of cross-strait conflict, the U.S. and Japan implement economic pressure. The Taiwan Navy escorts, the mainland coast guard intercepts, and the U.S. refuses military intervention, only remotely blocking the Malacca Strait and other straits and airlifting aid. Losses among all parties are low, but the report questions: without U.S. support, can Taiwan survive until the fourth week?

The mainland intercepts humanitarian ship convoys from Japan, and the U.S. "Patriot" missiles are stationed but still ineffective. After the conflict escalates, a rapid ceasefire follows — Taiwan accepts "one country, two systems," U.S. troops withdraw, and the mainland stops the fighting.

The last possible scenario: the mainland occupies Kinmen and Matsu, laying mines to intercept; after upgrading, only humanitarian supplies are allowed to pass. The report views this as "meaningless": the purpose of the blockade is not to punish "Taiwan independence," but to achieve unification, and will not allow "humanitarian corridors" to become backdoors for military supplies.

These free scenarios confirm that the U.S. and Japan's escort efforts will come at a high cost, with aircraft losses being 5-7 times that of the mainland. In high-intensity conflicts, the U.S. would lose hundreds of aircraft and dozens of warships, with economic losses reaching 3-7% of GDP; Japan's economic losses would be 6-14%. In other words, as long as the mainland persists, it is certain to win.

Overall conclusion: Isolating Taiwan Island through only a blockade is not the optimal strategy; actions need to be escalated to be effective; the Taiwan Strait war must be fought hard and directly at the core — this is tantamount to admitting that if the mainland strikes decisively, the U.S. and Japan can only watch helplessly. The unification cause was already determined from the beginning, and although Washington's "insightful eye" is bright, it reveals its own helplessness: the Pacific hegemony may become a thing of the past.



Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7545431315861176847/

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