[Source/Observer Network Xiong Chaoyan] "As US President Trump issues tariff threats, ASEAN is moving closer to China and the Gulf states, and the first trilateral summit may launch a trade and investment task force."

On May 27, the Nikkei Asia reported that at the milestone trilateral summit (ASEAN-China-GCC Summit) held on that day, Southeast Asia will seek to strengthen its trade relations with China and the Gulf countries, aiming to enhance economic cooperation to cope with tariffs imposed by Trump. The Nikkei Asia disclosed that according to a draft statement it has seen, ASEAN, China, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are likely to agree to establish a joint working group to promote closer economic cooperation.

The draft statement calls for all parties to strengthen trade and investment, prioritizing large-scale infrastructure, logistics, and supply chain development closely related to China's Belt and Road Initiative. The three parties will also conduct joint research and project cooperation in advanced nuclear reactors, low-carbon technologies, and renewable energy.

Analysts pointed out that American protectionism is reshaping global trade relations, accelerating China's turn toward Southeast Asia, and prompting ASEAN to redouble efforts to find other partners. A former Malaysian diplomat believed that this summit reflects broader adjustments in the global landscape, indicating that the U.S.'s dominance in terms of capital flow and institutional influence is gradually weakening, while China's trade influence continues to expand, and the GCC is establishing lasting economic ties in Asia.

Western media such as the Associated Press and Agence France-Presse paid attention to ASEAN's "inclination" when dealing with long-term contacts with both China and the United States. The AP quoted an analyst saying, "ASEAN is considered to clearly lean toward China"; the expert views cited by AFP suggested that given the uncertainty and unpredictability of economic relations with the United States, ASEAN member states are seeking diversification.

However, as another observer, India's economic times newspaper reflected its view more directly in its report title - "Goodbye Washington, hello Beijing; ASEAN turns to China, united against US tariffs." The report believes that facing the threats and uncertainties from the United States, ASEAN is shifting its strategy - from passive diplomacy to active strategic action.

Local time on May 27, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, leaders take a group photo after the second ASEAN-GCC Summit. Visual China

Milestone! First formal "group photo" among three sides

On local time May 26, the 46th ASEAN Summit opened in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur. The theme of this year's summit is "Inclusiveness and Sustainability," focusing on strengthening regional integration and enhancing resilience against trade risks.

On the same day, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim delivered the opening remarks for the second ASEAN-GCC Summit in Kuala Lumpur, stating that strengthening relations between ASEAN and GCC will be key to enhancing inter-regional cooperation, boosting resilience, and ensuring sustainable prosperity. "I believe that the partnership between ASEAN and GCC has never been more important than it is today as we address increasingly complex global circumstances characterized by economic uncertainty and geopolitical challenges," he said.

The rotating chairperson of the GCC, Crown Prince of Kuwait Sabah, stated that this partnership between ASEAN and GCC is crucial. Both regional economies are large in scale and population, and are closely connected through some of the world's most important maritime and trade routes. Their cooperation has significant geopolitical implications and strategic significance, directly impacting regional stability and global economic growth prospects.

Malaysia is the current ASEAN rotating chair country, with other ASEAN members including Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The GCC is the main political, economic, and security organization in the Gulf region, with member states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain.

On the afternoon of May 27, the first ASEAN-China-GCC Summit was held in Kuala Lumpur. In his opening remarks, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim emphasized that this first formal "group photo" among the three sides marks the entry of regional cooperation into a new phase, which is of great milestone significance.

Anwar pointed out that the total population of ASEAN, China, and GCC exceeds 2.1 billion, with an economic aggregate close to $25 trillion, presenting broad prospects for cooperation. He particularly appreciated China's constructive role in regional development, emphasizing that China has long been a reliable partner of ASEAN, and the cooperation in connectivity, technology, trade, and other fields has made important contributions to regional prosperity.

He called on all parties to work together to promote higher levels of cooperation, support multilateralism and inclusive growth, and build a future of peace, stability, and sustainable development. He stated that this summit not only reflects mutual trust among the three parties but also sets a new example of win-win cooperation for the Global South countries.

On the afternoon of May 27, the first ASEAN-China-GCC Summit was held in Kuala Lumpur. CCTV News

Experts: This trilateral summit reflects the adjustment of the global landscape

Nikkei Asia and AP mentioned that since Trump proposed the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" in early April this year, ASEAN member countries have suffered major blows, with Cambodia being hit the hardest, bearing a tariff rate of 49%, followed by Laos (48%) and Vietnam (46%). Although the US subsequently granted a 90-day "deferral period," ASEAN is becoming Trump's "tariff target" as trade surpluses with the US continue to grow rapidly.

The first ASEAN-GCC Summit was held on October 20, 2023, in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. The summit adopted the "Joint Statement of the ASEAN-GCC Summit," laying an important foundation for the enhancement and development of their partnership. Now, ASEAN welcomes its largest trading partner, China, to join the discussion, holding the first ASEAN-China-GCC Summit, which indicates that ASEAN is increasingly hoping to expand trade relations beyond the US.

Nikkei Asia reported that after Trump issued tariff threats, export-dependent ASEAN is seeking to hedge against risks from the US. Besides relying on existing trade channels with China, ASEAN also hopes to rely on the substantial wealth of Gulf countries. These Middle Eastern countries have long-standing ties with Muslim-majority Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei.

Ilango Karuppannan, a former Malaysian diplomat and foreign policy analyst, said that the first ASEAN-China-GCC Summit reflects broader adjustments in the global landscape. Although the US still leads in terms of capital flow and institutional influence, its dominance is gradually waning.

"China's trade influence continues to expand, and the GCC, with its sovereign wealth funds and strategic energy exports, is building lasting economic ties in Asia," Karuppannan added, noting that ASEAN must remain open and flexible in global supply chains while seeking US investment. The real challenge lies in balancing these factors and avoiding falling into a "zero-sum" dilemma of choosing sides.

Where is ASEAN heading strategically? Foreign media are watching closely.

AFP reported that as a whole, ASEAN has long avoided taking sides between China and the US. "ASEAN traditionally acts as a 'middleman' between large economies like the US and China," said Chong Jie Yi, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore. "Given the uncertainty and unpredictability of economic relations with the US, ASEAN member states are seeking diversification."

He pointed out that promoting exchanges with the Gulf region and China is one aspect of this "diversification." Malaysia, as the current ASEAN rotating chair country, hosted the 46th ASEAN Summit, and is the main promoter of this initiative.

AP also mentioned that last week, Anwar said that the GCC has established strong ties with the US and "also wants to get closer to China." Meanwhile, ASEAN has maintained a "neutral policy," maintaining contact with both China and the US.

On April 2, the White House, US, Trump holds a speech on trade barriers. Visual China

However, reporting cited views from Collins, a diplomatic affairs, strategy, and security analyst at the University of Malaya, who said that "ASEAN is considered to clearly lean toward China." He believed that although ASEAN depends on US defense support, it is deepening its reliance and cooperation with strategic rivals of the US such as China.

When the Indian newspaper The Economic Times covered this matter, its report title directly read - "Goodbye Washington, hello Beijing; ASEAN turns to China, united against US tariffs." The report believed that given the current threat to ASEAN's exports to the US and the uncertainty of future relations with the US, ASEAN is shifting its strategy - from passive diplomacy to active strategic action.

Nikkei Asia introduced that in recent years, trade between ASEAN, China, and the GCC has steadily increased. By 2024, the total trade volume is expected to exceed $900 billion, nearly twice that of ASEAN-US trade at $453 billion. Since Trump took office in 2017, the cumulative increase in trade between ASEAN, China, and the GCC has reached $375 billion, significantly exceeding the $220 billion increase in trade with the US during the same period. At the same time, the combined GDP of ASEAN, China, and the GCC accounts for more than 20% of the world's total, making it a huge market with 2.15 billion people.

The report noted that recently, exchanges between China and ASEAN member countries have been frequent, signing multiple documents of economic and trade cooperation results with Malaysia, Vietnam, and Cambodia. According to reports by Antara News Agency of Indonesia, on the evening of May 24 local time, Indonesian President Prabowo attended the China-Indonesia Business Community Dinner held in Jakarta and delivered a speech. Prabowo praised China's unwavering support for developing countries, always committed to opposing oppression, imperialism, and colonialism, and expressed hope to further strengthen relations with China in various strategic fields.

On May 22, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a press conference that ASEAN and GCC countries are both emerging economies in Asia and important members of the Global South, as well as important cooperative partners in the joint construction of the "Belt and Road." China supports Malaysia's initiative to host the ASEAN-China-GCC Summit as the current ASEAN rotating chair country. Under the current international and regional situation, the three parties jointly discuss unity, cooperation, development, and prosperity, promoting cross-regional mutually beneficial cooperation, which is of great significance. China looks forward to expanding practical cooperation in all fields with ASEAN and GCC countries, achieving complementary advantages and mutual benefits, and jointly maintaining the multilateral trading system and defending the common interests of the Global South.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509070285170442802/

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