African Continent's Critical Minerals: Many Chinese Companies Invest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): Cobalt Export Quotas and Copper Supply Risks Affect the DRC's Fiscal Revenue Outlook

¬ Cobalt prices more than doubled in 2025, and copper prices rose by over 40%. The supply-demand balance in 2026 is expected to determine price trends.

¬ The DRC plans to export 96,600 tons of cobalt annually during 2026-2027, half of the 2024 level, after lifting the 2025 export ban.

¬ Although the market predicts a balanced situation, the copper supply risks at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC, as well as global accidents, along with strong demand for artificial intelligence and renewable energy, may support copper prices.

In January 2026, cobalt prices exceeded $56,000 per ton, more than doubling from the previous year. This price increase was driven by a several-month export ban implemented by the DRC in February 2025, aimed at curbing international market cobalt oversupply.

Previously, the global production of cobalt from joint ventures in the DRC, operated by China Minmetals Corporation (CMOC), surged, leading to cobalt oversupply and a drop in prices from a peak of $82,000 per ton in 2022 to about $20,000 per ton in February 2025.

In October 2025, authorities lifted the export ban and introduced an annual quota system. Kinshasa set the cobalt export quota for the 2026-2027 period at 96,600 tons, about half of the 2024 level. The first shipments are expected to reach major destinations like China by the end of the first quarter of 2026.

CMOC maintains its 2026 cobalt production forecast between 100,000 and 120,000 tons, following a record 2025 production of 117,549 tons. Its 2026 export quota currently stands at 31,200 tons. Analysts from Fastmarkets expect the new production to ease market tensions and lower prices, but they predict a supply gap of 10,700 tons this year.

Copper: Supply Risks and Concerns About Shortages

The DRC did not restrict copper exports in 2025, but production issues led to rising copper prices. The country's largest copper mine - the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine operated by Ivanhoe Mines, partnered with Zijin Mining and CITIC Metal - produced 388,838 tons in 2025, below the expected 520,000 tons, after an earthquake accident in May. The company expects copper production to reach up to 420,000 tons in 2026.

Global supply pressures include production disruptions at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine. Market concerns about potential tariffs on refined copper in the US further supported copper prices, pushing London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper contracts above $13,407 per ton in mid-January 2026, setting a new record high.

Driven by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers, and renewable energy deployment, copper demand remains strong. Despite numerous factors driving the price increase, BMI and Goldman Sachs have a more cautious outlook for 2026 average prices: BMI forecasts $11,000 per ton, while Goldman Sachs predicts $10,000 to $11,000 per ton. Goldman Sachs noted, "Although we predict that copper supply will be slightly oversupplied in 2026, reaching 160,000 tons, bringing the market closer to a balance, we expect no global copper shortage in the short term."

Cobalt prices will continue to depend heavily on the DRC's policies, while copper prices will be more influenced by global supply factors. The export volume in 2026 will directly affect the country's fiscal revenue. Data from the DRC Ministry of Mines shows that copper exports fell by 17% in the first nine months of 2025.

Source: ecofinagency

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1854950603243528/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.