Kerry Brown, Professor of Chinese Studies at King's College London, mainly researches on China's elite politics and diplomatic strategies. Brown lived in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1994 to 1996, served as a British diplomat in China from 1998 to 2005, and was the First Secretary of the British Embassy in China from 2000 to 2003. The following is an excerpt from a recent interview with Brown by the Hong Kong South China Morning Post.

"Trump Lacks Understanding of China"

Reporter: First, let's talk about the latest tariff situation between China and the United States. In your opinion, how will this affect the economies of both countries and the global economy? Faced with the continued pressure from the U.S., how should China strategically respond?

Brown: I believe China has anticipated this and has diversified measures and policy responses to some extent for what Trump has done in many aspects. China now has markets and supply chains in Global South countries, and began working on this during the start of the pandemic.

China has also been striving to address the technology "deficit" issue with the U.S., expanding its R&D expenditure by 10%.

Q: Share your thoughts on "decoupling." The call for China-U.S. decoupling began during Trump's first term. Given the current situation, do you think China and the U.S. are entering a phase of comprehensive decoupling? Is China facing an increasing risk of isolation?

A: Trump lacks prudence and understanding regarding how China will negotiate, and the Chinese people must surely be shocked by this. I can't think of a worse strategy than threatening China and proposing a "zero-sum" plan. After all, this country deeply ingrains the narrative of "never being a victim again, never being bullied again," so everything Trump does can only make China more resolute in its stance.

The situation is at a stage where "face" is escalating, and neither side now has room for easy retreat. As for the notion of China being isolated, due to Trump unilaterally imposing tariffs on everyone, it seems like America is being isolated now.

Q: What are the main risks this situation brings to China—such as in the economic, political, and long-term global influence aspects?

A: The significant negative economic impact is obviously a major issue. Over the past half-century, China has never experienced an economic recession. However, I believe the main impact will be in the medium to short term, at least giving the Chinese leadership an opportunity to demonstrate its opposition to American bullying and arrogance. The Trump administration's second term presents a historic opportunity for China to truly become a global power. Whether they can or are willing to seize this opportunity is another matter. But so far, Trump almost daily provides them with this opportunity.

Viewing China in a New Framework

Q: At a time when Washington is undermining transatlantic trust, what role do you think the UK plays in the U.S.-China competition? What does Trump's presidency mean for relations between China and Europe and the UK?

A: We had four or five years of very poor relations with China. I think America's current actions are beneficial to China because at least China is predictable for Europe and the UK.

When seeing America being so aggressive and unpredictable, people will wonder, what other choices do we have? In the UK, many people have exaggerated Britain's influence in China, but their arguments are outdated. China is now a major technological innovator and will become even stronger.

Q: Last summer, Keir Starmer became the first Labour Prime Minister since 2010, and Trump began his second term in the White House this January. What advice do you have for the new British government's China policy?

A: The new Labour government in the UK is more pragmatic. I think they are trying to explore economic and financial options. We disagree on many things with China, but we must work together on some issues. We just need to be realistic.

Some in the UK feel that we should abandon China. But when your economy grows by only 0.1% like it did last quarter in the UK, and when productivity problems arise like ours, you must consider other options and make strategic choices.

You could say we don't deal with the world's second-largest economy because we don't agree with it, but this is not Britain's tradition. We always cooperate with others, even if we disagree with their views. Or just say, we strategically decide which areas we can cooperate on and which areas we cannot.

As for advice, I think China is leading the way in artificial intelligence. If you look at the top word in the national two sessions in 2025, it is "innovation," just like "reform and opening-up" used to be.

We face the challenge of dealing with China as an innovator, but our mindset hasn't adjusted yet. We need to acknowledge that when a country produces more science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) graduates than any other country, and invests $400 billion annually in R&D (which China does), and leads in many research fields, this is a new world order. This is change, and it has already happened.

Therefore, we must view China within this framework now, which is where we must fundamentally change our approach. (Translated/Edited by Hu Wei)

This article was published on the website of the Hong Kong South China Morning Post on April 14th, with the original title "Former British Diplomat Kerry Brown Believes China May Be Shocked by Trump's Lack of Prudence and Understanding," written by Silvie Zhuang (translated name).

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493812733075259939/

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