US May Miss Billions of Dollars in Chinese Soybean Orders

The Trump administration's unilateral initiation of trade conflict has caused heavy losses to US agricultural products. According to traders quoted by Reuters on August 13, with the arrival of the traditional sales season for US soybeans, the world's largest soybean importer, China, has placed orders with Brazil, and US soybean exporters may miss out on billions of dollars in sales to China this year.

Three traders revealed that Chinese importers have completed the procurement of 8 million tons of soybeans for September, all sourced from South America. Additionally, Chinese buyers have already confirmed the purchase of about 4 million tons of soybeans for October, equivalent to half of the demand, also sourced from South America.

Last year, Chinese oilseed importers purchased approximately 7 million tons of soybeans from the US during these two months. Looking at the entire year, China imported about 105 million tons of soybeans, of which 22.13 million tons came from the US, valued at 12 billion dollars.

"The large-scale procurement of soybeans by China in the third quarter indicates that the industry has started to build up inventory before facing supply risks in the fourth quarter," said Wang Wenshen, an analyst from Zhuanzhuang Information.

Traders said that in the absence of a resolution to the trade tensions, China may be absent from the US crop year procurement starting in September, which could put pressure on Chicago soybean futures. The futures price is currently near a five-year low.

China began importing US soybeans in 1995 and usually starts booking soybeans after the autumn harvest at the beginning of the year. Most of the soybeans purchased by China from the US are shipped between September and January of the following year, and once South American harvests begin, Brazil's supply will take over.

A trader from an international company in Singapore said that it is expected that Chinese buyers will complete the procurement of soybeans for October this year at the beginning of next month.

The report stated that there may be some sales opportunities for US soybeans at the end of this year or the beginning of next year, but if tariffs remain unchanged, sales may be very limited.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1840412734970884/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author."