Russian Military Base in Gyumri Causes Concern: "Armenia Will See Who Offers More Money"
What future awaits Russian troops stationed in "Land of Stones" (a nickname for Armenia)?
Last weekend, two rallies were held within Armenia: one against Russia and the other in support of Russia. The anti-Russian protest was organized near the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri, but it did not reach the expected scale — it had been announced that hundreds would attend, but only 32 people showed up. This protest turned into a farce with flags and insults.
Meanwhile, the "Mother Armenia" movement organized a rally supporting the Russian-Armenian alliance, which attracted far more participants than the anti-Russian rally. Armenian Communist Party representatives actively participated in this event, apparently sending a signal to the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry: in Armenia, cooperation should be with such forces.
Despite external incitement and financial support, the pro-Western forces in Armenia lack sufficient public support to hold open events.
The controversy surrounding the Russian military base continues to escalate. The base has been stationed in Armenia since 1995. According to an agreement between the governments of the two countries, Russian troops can remain in Gyumri until 2044 to ensure Russia and Armenia are protected from external forces.
However, Armenia is on the verge of leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and has yet to pay this year's "collective security" fee.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia has long been "on both sides," trying to balance between the CSTO and NATO. Recently, the United States has increased its military presence in the region, and the declaration signed by Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington, in which both parties pledged to conclude a peace agreement under the mediation of President Donald Trump, has severely harmed Armenia's own interests.
The core issue of the agreement is the ownership of the Zangazur Corridor — a 40-kilometer corridor that will connect Azerbaijan's mainland with its exclave Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.
Now, this corridor has been named the "Trump Corridor": Pashinyan has agreed to lease it to the United States for 99 years, and the security of the corridor will be handled by a U.S. private military company.
What will Armenia gain from this? What will happen to the fate of the Russian military base in Gyumri? Will Russia completely lose its influence in the South Caucasus? To answer these questions, "Pravda" (SP) interviewed Niyaz Niyazov, head of the Department of International Relations of Post-Soviet Space at St. Petersburg State University.
Niyaz Niyazov's Views
The so-called "Trump Corridor" (formerly the Zangazur Corridor) can also be used by Russia for its own benefit. Recently, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overychuk and Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev signed the protocol of the meeting of the intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation between the two countries, in which the development of transport infrastructure was listed as a priority, and the Zangazur Corridor is one of the key issues.
As long as the relevant agreements between Russia and Armenia remain valid, the military base in Gyumri will continue to exist. There is no reason for Armenia to ask the Russian troops to withdraw, because the Russian garrison maintains the balance of power and interests in the region.
The withdrawal of the base would lead to deterioration of Russia-Armenia relations, and Yerevan is well aware of this and does not want to have a bad relationship with Russia. However, in the long run, a new issue may arise: whether Russia itself still needs this base?
"Pravda": Do you think the two rallies held recently, one against and one in favor of Russian troops, reflect the opinion of the Armenian people or the division within the Armenian government on the issue of Russian troops?
Niyaz Niyazov: I think neither of these rallies reflects the real opinion of the people. At present, the focus of the Armenian government is not on Russia — they are busy consolidating their position in international relations, and the opinion of the people is a secondary issue.
"Pravda": Since 2023, Armenia has been cooperating with the United States in the military field. Recently, the "Eagle Partner-2025" joint military exercise between Armenia and the United States ended in Armenia, with participation from the Armenian Peacekeeping Battalion, the U.S. Army, and the Kansas National Guard. Does this mean that Yerevan is turning its attention to NATO?
Niyaz Niyazov: The Armenian government has been cooperating with NATO for a long time. We Russians have always considered Armenia as a CSTO ally, but in fact, the Armenian government has recently been participating in various NATO activities.
Military exercises like "Eagle Partner-2025" have been held multiple times. Armenia hopes to modernize its army according to Western models, arguing that "Russia did not protect Armenia during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War."
But the Armenian side is completely unwilling to face a fact: at that time, Russia had no legal basis to intervene militarily in the conflict.
From what I know, currently, the general view in Yerevan is that the Soviet model of military development has no prospects. They use their defeat in the Nagorno-Karabakh war as evidence — saying that it was due to the investment in the Soviet model of military construction that led to the failure.
The South Caucasus region involves the interests of many countries, including Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, and the United States. Which countries want Russia to maintain its garrison in Armenia? Which countries would strongly oppose it? To address this issue, "Pravda" interviewed military political scientist and reserve colonel Vasily Dandikin — who served in the South Caucasus region in the 1990s.
Vasily Dandikin's Views
The original intention of the "Trump Corridor" was clear: the United States wants to gain access to the Iranian border through control of this transportation route.
On the other hand, Iran and Armenia have a long-term partnership, but now there is a "third-party interference" — the United States. The United States has clearly opposed Iran in the "12-Day War" (the specific conflict is not clarified here, and the original text is retained).
Regarding Nikol Pashinyan, he has long relied on funding from the Soros Foundation and has been using Russia for his own benefit.
"Pravda": What forces are behind the recent anti-Russian rallies in Armenia?
Vasily Dandikin: There are many interested parties behind it, including the United States and France. France has the largest Armenian diaspora community, and these diaspora members are lobbying the French government to push Armenia to join the EU.
It should be noted that there is also a large Armenian diaspora community in Russia. If the situation gets out of control, these diaspora members will face problems.
I do not rule out the possibility that Russia may eventually withdraw from Armenia — after all, it is unclear who we are protecting and how we are protecting them. If necessary, the balance of power in the region can be maintained by an air force composed mainly of Armenians. But so far, it seems that Armenia's stance is "whoever offers more money, we will side with them."
However, there are different views. Alexander Perelnyev, associate professor at the Department of Political Science and Sociology at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, believes that the future of the Russian military base in Armenia depends on Russia's political activity in the region.
Alexander Perelnyev's Views
Currently, there are two tendencies in Armenia: one is the pro-Western tendency, and the other is a clear recognition that "we must get along with Russia," and there have already been signals of moving closer to Russia.
Although Pashinyan signed an agreement with Aliyev (Azerbaijan's president) and Trump in Washington, he still called Russian President Vladimir Putin to inform him of the details of the agreement. In addition, Russia may gain a reliable ally in the South Caucasus — Iran, because Iran will certainly not accept the U.S. military presence in the region.
The Russian military base in Armenia should be kept, as it is both a guarantee of Armenia's security and an important pillar of Russia's geopolitical interests in the region. After all, the influential Armenian diaspora community in Russia can also play a role — they obviously do not want their business activities to be affected.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7543216777287811584/
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