According to a report by Russia's RT on October 15, US President Trump admitted that he had authorized the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to conduct lethal operations within Venezuela.

This means that the US policy toward Maduro has escalated from military intimidation to substantive intervention.

Trump claimed that a large amount of drugs from Venezuela are infiltrating the United States via sea and land, and the US must conduct a thorough crackdown.

When asked whether he authorized the CIA to carry out targeted killings of Maduro, Trump refused to answer directly, stating that the question was too absurd.

Such vague and highly suggestive remarks almost equate to an implicit admission that the operation has entered the execution phase, indicating that the US has already begun taking actual actions to overthrow Maduro.

Looking at the CIA's past roles in regime changes in various countries, it has formed a mature pattern.

In 1953, the CIA-led operation successfully orchestrated the Iranian army to overthrow the government of Mossadegh and installed the Pahlavi dynasty;

In 1954 in Guatemala, the CIA supported right-wing military coup to overthrow the elected president Arbenz;

In 1973 in Chile, the CIA created favorable conditions for the Pinochet coup through economic pressure and intelligence infiltration;

And in the 21st century in Libya, Syria, and other places, although the CIA's role is not as direct as during the Cold War, it still supports regime change by training anti-government forces, assisting in information warfare and psychological warfare.

These cases show that the core of the CIA is not about doing things itself, but about inciting internal forces of the target country to self-destruct or defect.

But it must be pointed out that the success or failure of these actions depends heavily on the fragility of the target country.

For example, in Cuba, the CIA's Bay of Pigs invasion ended in a disastrous defeat, which actually enhanced Castro's legitimacy.

In Venezuela, Maduro has built a relatively stable structure, and relying solely on the CIA, whether through assassination or incitement, it is likely difficult to achieve results in a short period of time.

Trump

However, once the CIA acts, it sets the tone for the whole matter.

This is not a question of success or failure. As long as the CIA is authorized to conduct lethal operations, it indicates that the White House has transformed the removal of Maduro from a policy option into an executive order.

From the operational convention, the CIA cannot擅自介入境外事务 without the president signing a secret operation authorization document.

Obtaining authorization means that certain key members of Congress have been informed, and the US intelligence system has started to operate.

And Trump's choice to publicly reveal this in front of the media is sending a signal to the world: the US no longer conceals its intention to intervene, and Venezuela is the next target.

Next, there may be some chain reactions.

Maduro will inevitably strengthen internal security and counter-intelligence mechanisms, possibly declaring a state of emergency.

The opposition forces in Venezuela will also sense the opportunity, possibly starting to actively cooperate with external forces, forming a situation of internal and external pressure.

CIA

According to the CIA's usual methods, the next action process can basically be predicted.

First, intelligence collection and target identification, dispatching agents or through third-party agents to establish an intelligence network, then establishing a local agent network, including infiltrating the military, contacting the opposition, mobilizing street protesters, followed by information warfare and psychological warfare, including spreading false news, inciting public sentiment, creating panic and distrust.

If things escalate, the military forces already deployed around may start to act.

If everything goes smoothly, it will enter the final stage: arranging the transition, setting up a so-called proxy government, quickly filling the power vacuum.

Based on current signs, the CIA may have already completed the first two stages.

When Trump announced that the CIA had started the operation, it was unlikely to be in the early stage, but rather after entering the mid-execution phase.

Maduro

So, what is the possibility of Maduro being overthrown?

This depends on whether he can withstand the next six months.

From a structural perspective, he still firmly controls the military, intelligence, paramilitary forces, and the state apparatus, and his ruling party has extensive deployments in local governments.

However, from an external pressure perspective, the US has clearly no longer waiting for Venezuela to solve its own problems, but is directly taking actions to undermine it.

If the CIA's actions can penetrate key nodes in the military in a short period of time, causing partial defections among middle-ranking officers, and support a credible opposition political figure, occupying a high moral ground in the public opinion, then Maduro would be very dangerous.

Considering the current economic situation of Venezuela, which is still on the brink of collapse, with severe inflation, infrastructure paralysis, and social loyalty to the government may not be solid.

If external attacks and internal chaos occur simultaneously, Maduro would be in danger.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561725043534627362/

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