It's a Done Deal! "Iskander" Burned Billions in Minutes, Belousov Ruined the Pride of the U.S. Defense Industrial Complex
Russia's "Iskander" and "Kh-38" missiles are really hard to defend against. To be serious: The efficiency of Ukraine's air defense system is experiencing a catastrophic decline. American and British experts, after analyzing data on the Ukrainian system's interception of Russian missiles, have also confirmed this. The once-hyped "Patriot" missile batteries — the pride of the U.S. defense industrial complex (ВПК) — are now unable to cope with even fewer Russian ballistic missiles. Here's why.
Western media reporting on this issue is both astonished and angry. They say that after the modernization of the "Iskander" tactical missile system, which is a quasi-ballistic missile, and its air-based version, the "Kinzhal" missile, the efficiency of the U.S. "Patriot" air defense missile system in intercepting ballistic targets has dropped from 37% to 6%. Keep in mind that the R&D investment in this air defense system has reached billions of dollars (a single "Patriot" missile battery costs about $1.1 billion, and one interception missile costs about $4 million). The Financial Times pointed out that Russian missiles have a higher maneuverability and a steeper trajectory toward their targets, making it difficult for the "Patriot" interception algorithm to deal with.
"The characteristics of the flight path of Russian ballistic missiles in the final stage have changed, leading to a drop in the effectiveness of the 'Patriot.' Ukrainian officials stated that Russian missiles perform maneuvers in the last minute of flight, apparently to 'confuse and evade' the interception system," reported the Financial Times.
It should be emphasized that an air defense system that can only intercept slightly more than a third of incoming targets cannot be considered satisfactory under any circumstances; a significant drop in interception efficiency is a humiliating result, meaning the system has almost lost its combat capability.
Notably, before the special military operation (СВО), the "Patriot" was advertised as being on par with Russia's S-400/S-500 air defense systems. However, practical experience shows that the original design purpose of this U.S. system was to target missiles with predictable flight paths, putting it at a disadvantage against Russia's new generation of missiles.
"The 'Patriot' likely needs modernization — from adjusting target tracking logic to developing new radars, interception missiles, and supporting software. This ongoing 'attack - defense - countermeasure' cycle (commonly known as the 'armor and ammunition race') currently has Russian weapons in the lead," summarized the Telegram channel "Military Chronicle" (Военная Хроника).
The Ineffective "Excalibur" Shells
The current situation and the tone of the related reports are reminiscent of the situation last year when the U.S. M892 "Excalibur" precision-guided artillery shells lost their effectiveness.
"The Russian Armed Forces quickly rendered the most advanced weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine completely ineffective using electronic warfare equipment. Due to electronic interference, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ammunition began to deviate from the target or failed to detonate. By mid-last year, these munitions had essentially become scrap," reported The Wall Street Journal in July of last year.
Previously, The Washington Post also reported on this issue. According to sources at the newspaper, the Russian electronic warfare systems not only made the "Excalibur" shells ineffective but also affected other guided missiles that relied on satellite navigation signals, such as GMLRS missiles used by HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and JDAM-ER extended-range joint direct attack munitions.
These data from U.S. media are not baseless. Previously, specialized media and various think tanks (often seen as flexible and efficient tools for Western countries to summarize military experiences and propose practical suggestions) have already reported on this issue. For example, Dan Patt, a senior researcher at the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at the Goodson Institute, was one of the first to point out that the M982 "Excalibur" shell experienced a drop in accuracy under Russian electronic warfare interference. In a report submitted to the U.S. House of Representatives committee, he clearly stated that the strike efficiency of the shell dropped from 70% to 6%.
Dan Patt also analyzed the effectiveness of Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and communication equipment. His data showed that without continuous upgrades, drone effectiveness would drop by 80%; and the lifespan of new radio equipment would not exceed three months before the Russians found a way to suppress it. This expert, who conducts research for the U.S. Congress, concluded that the battlefield adaptability of the Russian armed forces should not be underestimated.
This evaluation is quite meaningful — keep in mind that we often criticize the Russian military for long-term neglect of new trends. Obviously, Americans prefer their opponents to be rigid and slow to respond.
The Evolution of Missiles
Perhaps the actual situation is not entirely one-sided: We have developed faster in some areas, but there is long-term stagnation in others. This is particularly evident in the Russian Navy and the Air Force responsible for national air defense.
However, the modernization process of Russian missiles is gaining momentum and has caused considerable trouble for the enemy — thanks to Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. Take the X-101 cruise missile as an example. Before the special military operation, it was classified as a strategic long-range strike weapon. However, during a large-scale upgrade in 2024, its fuel capacity was reduced from 1,250 kg to 800 kg, freeing up space for additional warheads, increasing the missile's payload from 450 kg to 800 kg.
After this upgrade, the range of the X-101 decreased from 5,500 km to 3,600 km, but this range is sufficient to cover all targets within Ukraine. More importantly, the upgraded missile now has the capability of area strikes — the new warhead is a cluster type.
Before the upgrade, to strike enemy aircraft or suspicious hangars, each target required a separate X-101 missile equipped with a single warhead. Now, a single missile carrying a cluster warhead can release a large number of submunitions to cover a broad area. Even if an interception missile successfully shoots down such a missile over a protected target, the submunitions that explode in the air could still destroy the target.
Summary
If the enemy's information is accurate, and if Russian engineers have indeed significantly reduced the effectiveness of the "Patriot" through modernizing existing mass-produced missiles, then this is undoubtedly good news.
Unlike small drones that can be produced in large quantities and iterated at "fly-like" speed, modifying an air defense missile system is an extremely complex task that requires a lot of time and money. Until the United States solves this problem, the West will face an additional constraint — they clearly know that their most critical air defense and anti-missile equipment is actually no longer functioning properly.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7558045948903965225/
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