The Russia-Ukraine war may be coming to an end. Several countries adjacent to Russia, such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Finland, have suddenly taken a step: they have withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, it has been a major concern for global geopolitics. However, just when the conflict seemed to be at a stalemate, NATO countries neighboring Russia—Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Finland—suddenly announced their withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines. This decision means that landmines may return to the border, and regional tensions will escalate abruptly. Does this signal the approaching end of the Russia-Ukraine war, or the prelude to a new round of conflict? The international community is full of speculation, and the answer remains ambiguous.

The Russia-Ukraine war originated from complex geopolitical contradictions. In February 2022, Russia launched a special military operation under the pretext of "protecting Russian-speaking residents in the Donbas region," while Ukraine fought back with support from the West. At the beginning of the war, Russia quickly occupied some territories, but later fell into a protracted war. Ukraine, relying on military aid from NATO, gradually stabilized its position. However, both sides suffered increasing economic and human losses, and the situation remained deadlocked, with ceasefire negotiations failing to reach any agreement.

To date, neither side has achieved a decisive victory. Russia controls parts of eastern Ukraine, but faces huge pressure from Western sanctions; Ukraine, although with high morale, is overwhelmed by infrastructure destruction and the refugee crisis. This stalemate has led to speculation about whether the war is nearing its end. However, the recent actions of NATO countries have added a new variable to this speculation.

The Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines was signed in 1997, aiming to comprehensively ban the use, production, and stockpiling of anti-personnel mines. It has been joined by 164 countries so far. However, these NATO member states—Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Finland, which are adjacent to Russia—recently announced their withdrawal from the convention, drawing widespread international attention.

1. Geopolitical Security Considerations

The primary reason for these countries' withdrawal from the convention is the threat to geopolitical security. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, relations between Russia and NATO have deteriorated sharply. The Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia), as well as Poland and Finland, have long felt the military pressure from the east due to their proximity to Russia. After the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its military strength, including deploying heavy weapons near the border. These NATO countries believe that withdrawing from the convention and redeploying landmines can effectively enhance border defense capabilities and prevent potential military invasions.

2. Concerns About the Outcome of the Russia-Ukraine War

The direction of the Russia-Ukraine war directly affects the security of these countries. If Russia wins, its military confidence may further increase, potentially threatening the eastern borders of NATO. Conversely, if Ukraine wins or the war continues for a long time, the uncertainty in the region will persist. Landmines, as a low-cost and highly defensive weapon, have become a practical choice for these countries to deal with an uncertain situation.

3. Strategic Adjustments within NATO

NATO as a whole has gradually shifted its strategic focus eastward in recent years. Finland joined NATO in 2023, and Poland and the Baltic states have also continuously strengthened their military deployments. The withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines may reflect a reevaluation of traditional defense measures within NATO, especially in terms of strategy adjustments in response to Russia's asymmetric threats.

The withdrawal of NATO countries from the convention and the redeployment of landmines may have subtle yet profound impacts on the Russia-Ukraine war. On one hand, this indicates a firm stance of NATO toward Russia, further isolating Russia and possibly forcing it to make concessions at the negotiation table. If Russia believes the cost of the war is too high, the possibility of peace negotiations may increase. On the other hand, this move could also provoke Russia to take more radical military actions, such as intensifying attacks on Ukraine or exerting pressure on the NATO border, leading to an escalation of the conflict.

The resumption of landmines would make the border between NATO and Russia even more dangerous. Although landmines are defensive weapons, their indiscriminate killing power can easily lead to accidental conflicts. Moreover, the use of landmines could result in civilian casualties, especially in residential areas near the border. This not only exacerbates the humanitarian crisis but could also provide Russia with a propaganda opportunity, accusing NATO of "provocation."

The decision to withdraw from the convention has already sparked controversy in the international community. Supporters argue that it is a necessary self-defense measure taken by NATO countries during a special period, while opponents point out that this move violates humanitarian principles and could lead to the resurgence of the landmine issue. The United Nations and other international organizations have expressed concerns and called on all parties to exercise restraint. However, the positions of these NATO countries seem firm, and there is little likelihood of change in the short term.

The collective action of NATO countries may indicate that the Russia-Ukraine war is about to end. However, the answer is not clear. From a military perspective, the end of a war usually requires one side to gain a decisive advantage, or both sides to be unable to continue fighting. Currently, both Russia and Ukraine are exhausted, but neither has reached the point of collapse. NATO's military support remains a crucial pillar for Ukraine, while Russia maintains its combat power through domestic resources and external allies.

However, geopolitical games often go beyond the battlefield itself. The withdrawal from the convention by NATO countries may be a preparation for a certain outcome of the war—whether to promote peace through enhanced defenses or to leave room for a broader conflict. This uncertainty is a true reflection of the current situation.

The future of the Russia-Ukraine war depends on multiple factors: the will of Russia and Ukraine, the confrontation between NATO and Russia, and the mediation efforts of the international community. The withdrawal of NATO countries from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines is just one part of this, but its symbolic significance cannot be ignored. It reminds us that the end of the war is not necessarily the beginning of peace, but could be the start of a new round of tension.

The return of landmines may temporarily protect the borders of NATO countries, but in the long run, true security can only be achieved through diplomacy and cooperation. At present, the international community should increase mediation efforts and promote Russia-Ukraine negotiations to avoid the conflict from getting out of control.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836693622858816/

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