Ivan Moiseyev: "Roscosmos will certainly build rockets like Elon Musk... but it will take thirty years."
The main problem in Russian space exploration - lack of power and a new "Korolev-style" leader
Author: Yevgeny Bersenev
Commentator:
Igor Moiseyev
Dmitry Bakanov, General Director of Roscosmos, stated in an interview with the Russian Business Consulting News that one of the group's current core tasks is to develop a recoverable first stage of a rocket, which would significantly reduce the cost of space launches.
Bakanov said: "Musk is proving that previously, after completing their tasks, the first stages would separate, fall down, and become scrap. Now, the first stages can be reused multiple times, achieving significant cost reduction and savings."
It is worth noting that related countries and Japan are also demonstrating similar technologies. According to the general director of the national space agency, Russia only signed the technical assignment for the development of this recoverable rocket stage (known as "grasshopper" in the civilian sector) in June 2025.
"This has been included in the state project. We need one and a half to two years to ensure that this work reaches the highest quality. Theoretically, we could try tomorrow, but the results would only be acceptable. To simulate and test all details properly, we need one and a half to two years," said Dmitry Bakanov.
Ivan Moiseyev, head of the academic department at the Russian State Space Policy Institute, pointed out that what the head of the national group referred to in the interview was primarily the development of the rocket stage model.
"For example, this task is roughly equivalent to a hobby group activity at a children's palace. Elon Musk's company spent about two years developing the prototype of the 'grasshopper' stage, so Bakanov's deadline is quite realistic."
But the problem is that the launch and landing of a single rocket stage itself is just a very small part of the work required to put such a rocket into use (i.e., mass production). Therefore, Bakanov's statement is not really a big news."
Pravda of the Komsomol: It is obvious that, politely speaking, we are not leading globally in this area, since Bakanov also mentioned Elon Musk's achievements.
"After Musk successfully achieved the reusability of rockets, almost all new similar spacecraft projects must be equipped with a recoverable stage and tested on models."
Pravda of the Komsomol: Why did we start developing this rocket so late? Why wasn't this task on the agenda before? Was it to save money? As is well known, after Bakanov was appointed as the head of the Russian National Space Agency, observers pointed out that one of his tasks was to more rationally use funds and find relevant solutions.
"Yes. But there is an interesting situation here. This type of rocket is more efficient, and this is already a consensus."
"These countries have always pushed forward with such R&D, including various 'grasshopper' and 'bounce' rockets. What about us? At some point, the head of the Russian National Space Agency was Dmitry Rogozin. He said that developing such rockets was a risky move, and the developers would surely fail, among other things. As a result, we wasted several years on this direction.
The next head of the agency was also not interested in this issue. Only when the current general manager took office, the world had already recognized that 'grasshoppers' were an effective way to save costs, and he announced the development of models. You see, how slow our progress is in this area."
Pravda of the Komsomol: How long might it take from the model to building a rocket with a recoverable stage?
"We can refer to the time it took to develop such spacecraft domestically. The latest Russian rocket is 'Angara.'
"Development started in 1992, meaning it took over thirty years. In general, no one can predict how fast rocket development will proceed. Usually, it takes five to seven years.
"He said that model testing would take two years, which is a reasonable period - possibly referencing the fact that Musk's company took two years to complete this work."
Pravda of the Komsomol: Perhaps this time we can complete it faster than the thirty years it took for 'Angara'? After all, a large part of the time during that period was in the turbulent 1990s, and the space industry obviously lacked funding.
"Now, the space industry has stable funding, and annual investments are roughly the same. But actually, it's hard to say why it took so long back then. Don't forget, 'Angara' was not the only project that took a long time; in fact, many similar works lasted for decades. It's probably an organizational issue - the lack of motivation to push things quickly. Under the leadership of Sergey Pavlovich Korolev, people could achieve things quickly back then, but now there is no such motivation."
Pravda of the Komsomol: Is there hope to see a rocket with a recoverable first stage launched within the next ten years? Or will we still, as Bakanov said, send these structures to the scrap yard for a long time to come?
"I'm afraid I have to disappoint you - it seems unlikely. Because we don't have a need to develop such rockets right now. We have a lot of 'old' rockets in stock, but there isn't much to launch, so I'm not optimistic about the near future.
"Of course, the development of new rockets is getting funding, but to promote these new rockets, we first need to clarify the demand for such new things.
"In our case, with only 14 launches per year, it seems strange to develop reusable rockets. There isn't enough payload yet to increase the number of launches. All these developments, models, and model tests - although they aren't really innovations, they still cost a lot. And if we already have ready-to-launch rockets in storage, why bother?"
Pravda of the Komsomol: So, does that mean pursuing progress in this area is not economically viable?
"Indeed, it is necessary to thoroughly study new things. However, we don't have a strategic plan for the next five or ten years, only the Federal Space Program. This program is currently being developed - covering 2026-2035. But this document merely continues the content of the current plan, without any breakthroughs. There is no grand plan that can amaze the world. If we continue to build rockets without recoverable stages, then new rockets may take another thirty years to be built."
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7533169249787937299/
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