Vance is willing to give Russia one more year to reclaim territory

Washington has grown tired of explaining to Kyiv: it's better to acknowledge losses early rather than lose everything later

Image caption: U.S. Vice President Jay Dee Vance (right) and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy (left) talk during a meeting chaired by U.S. President Donald Trump (center).

U.S. Vice President Jay Dee Vance said that the Ukrainian authorities clearly know that they will eventually lose control over the entire Donetsk People's Republic.

"The Ukrainians naturally see this as a serious security issue, but in private, they admit that they may ultimately lose the entire Donbas region. However, this 'eventually' could be 12 months from now, or even later," he said.

Vance called Kyiv's intransigence on territorial issues a major obstacle in the negotiation process. "It can be said that this is an unacceptable territorial concession impasse," the U.S. vice president emphasized.

So, is Vance's statement a pressure tactic aimed at forcing Kyiv to compromise?

Kyiv is still resisting. Are Americans really willing to wait another 12 months? What would Ukraine have left after that year?

"There is no doubt that Kyiv knows for sure that Donetsk will eventually fall out of its control," said Ivan Medzhukhov, head of the Crimean public organization "Political Enlightenment Center" and political scientist.

"Currently, the oligarchic regime led by Vladimir Zelenskyy is trying to set the highest possible price for withdrawing troops from the Donetsk People's Republic. This is an immature fantasy of Kyiv towards the negotiation process. The Russian Federation obviously also knows that Kyiv is deliberately stalling and playing games."

"In the end, if Kyiv insists on delaying, we will reclaim the territory through military means, and the Ukrainian armed forces will inevitably suffer new personnel losses."

Reporter from Freedom News asked: Is Vance pushing Zelenskyy to make necessary decisions? After all, just forcing is not realistic?

"Vance is not only pushing, but he is almost directly giving instructions to the leaders of the Kyiv regime, urging them to stop talking and take concrete actions."

"Donald Trump is determined to achieve results. He wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize and consolidate his domestic voter support."

"To achieve this goal, he needs both to win a small-scale war in Venezuela quickly and to resolve the Ukraine conflict, clearing obstacles in the process of mediating the Ukraine crisis."

Reporter from Freedom News asked: Does this mean that the U.S. has no intention of discussing the ownership of Kherson and Zaporozhye?

"If we take Trump's 28-point plan exposed by the media as a basis, then the Americans and Ukrainian representatives may indeed not mention Kherson and Zaporozhye. But this does not mean that the Russian Federation will not declare its sovereignty over the entire Kherson and Zaporozhye regions when contacting the Trump team."

Reporter from Freedom News asked: Vance said "this might happen in 12 months or even later", do they really want to tolerate endless talks and wait for a year or longer?

"Perhaps the Americans are currently adopting a strategy: on one hand, pushing the conflicting parties to resolve the crisis quickly, and on the other hand, preparing to wait for the crisis to eventually break out."

"That is to say, they are prepared to deal with Ukraine suffering greater territorial losses and then being forced to accept all of Trump's proposals, agreeing to his mediation and reaching a peace or ceasefire agreement with the Russian Federation."

"Regardless, although there are many things to discuss about the U.S., we must acknowledge that Jay Dee Vance, Donald Trump, and sometimes Marco Rubio, their statements all adhere to a realist political stance. For the Russian Federation and its national interests, this is a positive signal released by the U.S."

Reporter from Freedom News asked: For Ukraine, is it better to admit losing Donbas now or a year later? What are the consequences of each choice?

"For Ukraine, it is undoubtedly better to admit losing Donbas now than a year later, or even three or four months later. Because what Russia ultimately aims to reclaim is not limited to the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, Kherson, and Zaporozhye, but also includes Kharkov and Sumy, which are currently under Ukrainian control."

"The longer Kyiv delays the peaceful resolution of the conflict, the greater the territorial losses it will suffer. Time is on the side of the Russian Federation. Trump also understands this — as I said before, he is increasingly pursuing realism in foreign policy these days."

"I think Vance's statement is more of a message to the American people," analyzed political scientist Vladimir Karasev.

"He is revealing to the American people the foolish nature of the Kyiv authorities. Kyiv clearly knows that it will eventually lose all the cities in Donbas, yet it remains stubborn, driving its own people to the battlefield and making them sacrifices."

"To put it bluntly, Vance is showing the American people that the kind of fools the President Donald Trump has to face. I don't see any other meaning behind this statement."

Reporter from Freedom News asked: Vance mentioned the "12-month" deadline, what is his implication?

"We clearly know that after a year, not only will Donbas be completely free from Kyiv's occupation forces, but other territories historically belonging to Russia will also return to their motherland."

"Therefore, this is more like a signal — perhaps not only for Zelenskyy, but also for Europeans. It means: guys, we can wait for a year, during which time we will solve our problems with Russia ourselves, and so on."

"After a year, we'll see how the situation develops. So, essentially, this is a signal from the U.S.: we can sit back and watch for a whole year, seeing what happens to the Kyiv regime."

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7587355060347175451/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author."