On January 29, Japan's Tokyo Broadcasting System (TBS) reported that the latest calculation by Mizuho Research & Technology showed that if Japan's exports of rare earths were completely halted and continued for a year, even considering Japan's national reserves of 60 days, it would lead to a decline of about 0.88% in Japan's gross domestic product (GDP).
Japan's chief economist, Azuma Higashizawa, warned, "This means that Japan's economic growth over one or two years will be wiped out."
This data highlights Japan's high dependence on rare earth resources and its potential economic vulnerability, as well as reflecting the complexity and strategic risks of current global supply chains.
Rare earths are a general term for 17 rare metal elements, widely used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, consumer electronics, precision instruments, and defense industries (such as missile guidance systems). Japan heavily relies on imported rare earths for its high-end manufacturing (especially in the automotive, electronics, and robotics industries), and it is difficult to replace them on a large scale in the short term.
Currently, China is the world's largest producer and exporter of rare earths, accounting for about 60%-70% of the global supply chain. Although Japan has been actively promoting import diversification (such as purchasing from Australia, the United States, Southeast Asia, etc.) and investing in deep-sea rare earth exploration, China remains its key supplier in the short term. The assumption of a "complete export stoppage" under extreme scenarios may imply a simulation of geopolitical tensions or trade conflicts.
China limiting its rare earth exports to Japan could lead to production cuts or even shutdowns in core industries such as automobiles and electronics.
The ripple effects of the industrial chain will also be affected. Japanese manufacturing is known for lean production and low inventory; any interruption will quickly affect upstream and downstream companies.
Long-term reliance may force Japan to accelerate the development of alternative materials or move its industrial chains abroad, but this will be costly in the short term.
Since the 2010 "Sino-Japanese rare earth dispute," Japan has established a national and private reserve system, but 60 days of reserves can only buffer short-term shocks. If the disruption lasts more than half a year, after the reserves are exhausted, there will be a risk of production stagnation, which will affect export competitiveness and economic stability.
The 0.88% GDP decline assessed by Japan may seem small, but in the context of Japan's long-term low growth (1% or lower), this shock could trigger a chain reaction: corporate investment shrinkage, pressure on the job market, expansion of trade deficits, and even impact energy transition.
For Japan, which is highly dependent on high-end manufacturing, ensuring a stable supply of rare earths has gone beyond the economic sphere, becoming a core issue involving technological sovereignty and national security. In the future, Japan may further promote a combination strategy of "reserves + diversification + recycling + alternative materials," but it will still be difficult to completely摆脱 structural dependence in the short term.
If you want to fight, you must hit him hard. Don't indulge him, let him go. If so, he will be bullied.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1855748729778252/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.