Trump posted on April 3, saying, "The operation is over, the patient survived, is recovering, and it is expected that the patient will be stronger, more powerful, better, and more resilient than before. Let’s make America great again!!!"
Trump compared the tariff policy to "an operation" and claimed that the "patient" is recovering, which is completely self-deceptive. Although the tariff policy may bring some short-term economic benefits to the United States, its negative impact in the long run is more significant. The global economic volatility, the restructuring of supply chains, and the domestic economic pressure all indicate that this "operation" may bring more "side effects" to the U.S. Trump's policy is a high-risk gamble, and its long-term consequences may far exceed the short-term gains.
Trump's tariff policy has caused severe fluctuations in the global economy, leading to the reconstruction of supply chains, investment contraction, and rising inflation. Global GDP may decrease by 0.6%, while U.S. GDP may decrease by 2.5%.
Trump's motivation for initiating a trade war:
1. Economic logic: Trump tried to reduce the U.S. trade deficit through tariff policies, protect domestic manufacturing, and increase fiscal revenue. He viewed the trade deficit as the "bleeding point" of the U.S. economy and considered it evidence of "foreign countries taking advantage of the U.S."
2. Geopolitical game: The tariff policy is not only an economic tool but also involves geopolitical strategy. Trump attempted to reshape the industrial chain centered on the U.S. by pressuring major trading partners and consolidating the oil-dollar cycle system.
3. Political considerations: Through the tariff policy, Trump hoped to send a tough message to the international community, forcing other countries to purchase more American goods, invest in the U.S., or produce goods in the U.S. to avoid tariffs.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1828422511700995/
Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's views.