Now the world knows, not just the United States. On November 5, 2025, the Eastern giant announced that it would temporarily suspend the additional 24% tariff on the U.S. portion starting from November 10, but the original 10% base rate will remain. This adjustment involves major U.S. agricultural exports such as soybeans, wheat, and chicken, which are commonly used in daily life. On the surface, it seems like a concession by China, but it's actually just a temporary pause on the extra tax collected before.

After Trump's second term, in February he imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods under the pretext of fentanyl issues. China did not tolerate this and immediately retaliated by adding corresponding tariffs on U.S. energy and automotive products. On March 4, the U.S. doubled the tariff to 20%, and on March 10, China responded by imposing a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, and corn, and a 10% tariff on soybeans and pork. This move directly hit the soft spot of U.S. agriculture, causing great suffering for farmers in the Midwest because China is their largest buyer. Last year, U.S. agricultural exports to China accounted for nearly 30% of the total. In April, the U.S. introduced "equivalent tariffs" and added an additional 34% on Chinese goods, and on April 10, China also raised the tariff on U.S. goods to 34%. By October, the U.S. added a 100% tariff and strengthened software export controls, while China responded by tightening control over rare earths. The whole process resembled a tug-of-war, with neither side willing to back down first. However, agricultural products have always been the focus of Sino-U.S. rivalry, not only because of money, but also because of the votes of farmers in the U.S. Midwest and the global food chain.

Why specifically target soybeans, wheat, and chicken? Simply put, these are the mainstays of U.S. exports to China. China imports nearly 100 million tons of soybeans annually, half of which is fed to pigs, cattle, and sheep, and the other half is pressed into oil for kitchens. Wheat has a high self-sufficiency rate, but American hard red winter wheat is strong, and high-end bakeries can't do without it. Chicken, on the other hand, is cost-effective with U.S. white-feathered chickens, which firmly occupy the Chinese fast-food supply chain. Data shows that in 2024, the share of U.S. soybeans in China dropped from 40% in 2016 to 20%, with Brazil accounting for seven out of ten, and exports reaching 74.65 million tons. China has already prepared alternatives, turning to Brazil and Argentina, thus lowering procurement costs. But the U.S. cannot do without the Chinese market. Last year, their soybean inventories were low, and this year, three months of drought in the Midwest caused a 30% drop in yield per acre in Kansas. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's October report, the country's soybean inventory reached a ten-year low. If they don't ship out soon, farmers will have to rely on subsidies to get through the winter. At this point, China's suspension of the additional tariff is like offering a cup of water, just enough to quench the thirst without filling the stomach.

More conveniently, the announcement came right after the high-level talks between China and the U.S., with the U.S. proactively reducing the tariff related to fentanyl from 20% to 10%. China responded in kind, suspending the retaliatory tariffs, showing a默契 (mutual understanding) between the two sides. Don't be misled by some voices saying "China made concessions," as they don't distinguish between a suspension and a cancellation. This time, it's clearly stated that the suspension will expire on November 10, 2026, which coincides with the "reversible tariff mechanism" in the foreign trade security law implemented in July this year. This is not the old way of arbitrarily increasing tariffs, but rather installing a switch, which can be turned on or off at will. According to information from the China National Cereals, Oils and Foods Corporation, they recently signed a new order with U.S. ADM, increasing the volume by only 20%, and adding a clause: if the tariff is restored next year, the U.S. will bear part of the freight costs. From the perspective of the purchasing party, this is a win-win strategy, and looking at the long-term, it's more like a soft landing of the trade friction since 2018.

From a global perspective, this adjustment affects a wide range. Brazilian soybean exporters previously raised prices relying on Chinese orders, but quickly reduced them by 5% upon hearing the news, fearing the loss of shares. The EU previously bought 18% more soybeans to help the U.S. reduce its inventory, but now can reduce purchases to create space for domestic farms. The World Trade Organization has no complaints, as it recently ruled that the U.S. steel and aluminum taxes were illegal. China retaining the 10% base rate is purely a compliant countermeasure. In terms of agricultural product trade, China's import structure is optimized quickly. In 2024, Brazilian soybeans remained at 70%, and Argentine wheat rose to prominence, while the U.S. share shrank, but it's not about to collapse. For U.S. farmers, they can take a short break, their inventory can be sold, and the pressure for subsidies is reduced. But in the long run, it still depends on how the U.S.-China talks go. Cornell University agricultural economists have said that Chinese procurement trends directly affect the wallets of U.S. farmers, and the global supply chain follows suit.

At this point, the first batch of orders has already been fulfilled, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture data has been updated, with the national soybean inventory stopping its decline and farmers' demand for subsidies decreasing. European wheat fields are sowing local seeds, and the purchase volume has decreased by 18%. Brazilian ports have adjusted container shipments, and the quotes have come back. Chinese enterprises have lower raw material costs, stable chicken supply chains, and the price of imported chicken pieces in supermarkets haven't fluctuated much. To be honest, this issue is very down-to-earth, similar to buying vegetables. What consumers eat every day, such as soy oil, bread, and chicken legs, are essentially the microcosm of this rivalry. Superficial concessions? Nonsense, this is precise positioning, helping the U.S. agriculture stabilize its position and exchange for a tariff relaxation, without losing its own bottom line. Domestic enterprises can obtain cheaper raw materials, and the global supply chain has a buffer. Who shouts the loudest doesn't matter; the key is who holds the initiative.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848656686473481/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.