Reference News Network, January 1 report: The website of the U.S. cable news network CNN published an article titled "From Artificial Intelligence to Venezuela: Why 2026 Will Be a Turning Point in the Global Power Structure" on December 24, 2025. The author is former U.S. diplomat Brett McGurk. The following is a compilation:

The past year has been more of a year of change than a transition. 2026 now appears to be a crucial year, with multiple turning points emerging on the global agenda.

The following are seven issues I will closely monitor:

1. Caribbean: Tense Situation

The Trump administration has deployed the largest fleet in the Caribbean in recent years. The U.S. military is conducting a deadly operation against so-called drug traffickers. These strikes have neither congressional authorization nor public debate. In the past week, Trump announced a military blockade on illegal oil transport, escalating tensions.

This looks like a regime change policy backed by force. The White House seems to hope that Venezuelan leader Maduro will voluntarily give up power. But this is unlikely to happen.

Trump now claims that the U.S. will become the dominant force in the Western Hemisphere and is prepared to use force when necessary to advance American interests.

What does all this mean? The fate of Maduro in 2026 may provide the answer. If he continues to hold power, Trump may be seen as bluffing. If he falls, few would doubt Trump's determination as the hegemon of the Western Hemisphere. I believe that the direction of the coming year will largely determine the trajectory of the "Trump theory" for the remainder of his second term.

2. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Fifth Year

In February 2026, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will enter its fifth year. The fifth year of the war may be a turning point, with the possibility of peace emerging as the warring parties grow exhausted or take more risky actions to break the deadlock.

However, both sides seem not yet ready for a breakthrough. The fifth year may not differ much from the previous four: Russia continues to invest heavily in manpower and resources, gradually occupying limited territory; Ukraine relies on economic aid and military supplies from its Western partners. It has been reported that President Trump is seeking a peace agreement that would require Ukraine to cede some territory in exchange for security, prompting Russian President Putin to abandon his maximalist goals.

To date, Putin has shown no signs of compromise. Therefore, the question is whether Trump will blame Putin for the failure of negotiations or choose to completely withdraw, thereby weakening Ukraine's ability to resist attacks. From this perspective, the fifth year of the war may be crucial, but it is more reflected in Washington than on the battlefield.

3. U.S. National Security Strategy: Adjustments and Changes

In its latest national security strategy, the United States positions itself as a hemispheric power and claims that "the days when the U.S. supports the entire world order are over." The document also criticizes traditional European allies for lacking responsibility and faces the risk of "civilizational erasure" due to liberal immigration policies.

Taiwan is one of the most important issues on the global security agenda. Most semiconductor chips that power our cars and phones are manufactured here, and instability here could have huge global impacts.

It remains unclear whether Trump will accept Beijing's dominance in this area as his national security strategy suggests.

4. Israel: Key Election

In terms of military achievements, Israel has had a successful year. However, overall, Israel has failed to translate military victories into lasting political and diplomatic achievements, partly due to internal divisions.

In 2026, Israelis will have the opportunity to change the status quo. After four years since the last election, the country must hold parliamentary elections by October 27, 2026. The election results will determine whether Israel can consolidate its military victories or continue with a fragile and uncertain status quo.

If Israel forms a new coalition government after the election, or at least a coalition government without extreme members of the current Netanyahu government, the likelihood of Trump expanding the Abraham Accords before the end of his term increases. If the election leads to a deadlock, fails to produce a new government, or worse, continues with the current government, there will likely be no progress in diplomacy, and Israel may miss a historic opportunity.

5. Iran: Difficult Situation

Iran had a terrible year, and its situation in 2026 will only get worse. If Iran restarts its nuclear program or resumes its missile arsenal, Israel is likely to strike again. Therefore, please pay attention to the situation in Iran this year. Just like in 2025, Iran may experience some unexpected events.

6. Terrorism: Resurgence

Last month alone, there was a massacre targeting Jews celebrating Hanukkah in Australia, and a plot in Los Angeles to detonate bombs among crowds during New Year's Eve was thwarted. Last week, the Islamic State (IS) killed two U.S. soldiers in Syria, the first such incident since 2019. A few days ago, the U.S. launched air strikes against more than 70 IS targets in Syria, raising questions about why these targets were not destroyed earlier. The head of the UK's domestic intelligence agency recently described the threat posed by IS in the UK as "significant," and EU officials have also stated that IS has become the "most prominent threat" to member states.

It seems that this worrying trend will continue in the coming year. To reverse the situation, the U.S. and its partners must strengthen cross-border law enforcement cooperation and adopt a zero-tolerance approach toward anyone who incites or condones violence for political purposes.

7. Artificial Intelligence: A Revolution

Given the military applications of artificial intelligence and its potential to almost transform all aspects of national policy, both Beijing and Washington view artificial intelligence as a survival competition, often compared to the space race of the Cold War era.

In 2025, Chinese AI startup DeepSeek launched a groundbreaking reasoning model that challenges America's leading models at a fraction of the cost.

The U.S. has been trying to solidify its position through export controls and expanding a network of partners dependent on U.S. technology. The Trump administration has deepened these relationships while proposing to ease some export restrictions, including those on China. This move has raised concerns from both parties, but it has not been implemented yet.

Domestic constraints are increasing. Data center networks are rapidly expanding, requiring large amounts of electricity, and the U.S. lags behind China in this aspect, while electricity demand is surging. Some Democrats have begun calling for a comprehensive ban on new data centers. As in the Cold War era, global technological competition may increasingly clash with domestic political pressures.

It is expected that by 2026, the friction between the rapid development of artificial intelligence, unresolved policy debates, and intensifying geopolitical competition will continue to escalate. These factors together are likely to make artificial intelligence one of the most important forces shaping the global political landscape in the coming years. (Translated by Zhao Feifei)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7590325781524513318/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.