International Energy Organization: European aviation fuel supplies will last only about six weeks, and soon flights between cities will be canceled.
According to the latest warning from Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe is indeed facing a severe aviation fuel supply crisis—one that reflects the broader consequences of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
How serious is the crisis?
Six-week buffer: If the situation remains stagnant, European reserves may last only around six weeks.
23-day warning threshold: If alternative imports fall short, inventory levels could drop to just 23 days by June, potentially turning shortages into systemic problems.
75% dependency: Europe relies on Middle Eastern imports for approximately 75% of its aviation fuel.
Why is there a fuel shortage?
The root cause of this "largest energy crisis in history" lies in blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz:
Supply chain disruption: The strait is a critical energy artery; obstruction has directly cut off supply to Europe. No aviation fuel is currently being transported through it.
Surge in transportation costs: Jet fuel prices have doubled, soaring to $1,838 per ton, significantly increasing operational costs.
Chain reaction: Refining hubs like China and India, which depend on Middle Eastern crude oil, are also affected, intensifying global competition for fuel.
What comes next?
Flights to be canceled in May: Industry warnings indicate that systematic shortages could begin as early as early May.
Preemptive actions already underway: SAS plans to cancel 1,000 flights in April, Ryanair warns of reduced capacity during summer, and Air France-KLM has announced cuts of 160 flights next month.
Fare increases continue: Fuel surcharges and ticket prices are expected to keep rising.
Hubs prioritized for supply: Core hubs like Heathrow will receive priority, while smaller airports and remote routes face greater risks.
Regulatory tug-of-war: Airlines are urging the EU to launch joint procurement and suspend carbon emissions trading to reduce burdens.
Global impact: Developing countries are hit most directly; Asian nations such as Japan and South Korea are also under pressure, possibly triggering a global economic slowdown.
The course of this crisis hinges entirely on when the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations and how quickly Europe can secure sufficient alternative supplies.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862671940610060/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author