The U.S. think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), released a new so-called Taiwan Strait war game report on December 27, 2025, titled "Lights Out? A War Game on China's Blockade of Taiwan Province." According to this latest U.S. war game, if China wants to reunify Taiwan Province, it can simply conduct a maritime blockade without launching a full-scale military unification. The CSIS conducted 26 rounds of war games on the Taiwan Strait. This time, the war game assumed that hostilities would begin in 2028, with the Taiwanese military not having surrendered in large numbers, and the U.S. military preparing to support.
According to the CSIS, as an island, Taiwan Province relies heavily on maritime trade for its lifeblood, including oil energy and food supplies. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan Province would severely impact its economy, causing a sharp economic downturn. The CSIS issued a warning that Taiwan Province has extremely poor energy reserves, with only 10 days of natural gas, weeks of oil and coal, and nine months of food (it is unclear how the CSIS calculated this, as Taiwan Province has limited arable land, and under a blockade, there would be no seeds or fertilizers, making it difficult to feed the entire population of the island).
The CSIS believes that China's coast guard will be responsible for inspections, followed by missile strikes and submarine attacks, then U.S.-Japan intervention, eventually leading to a full-scale war. It then turned into a full-scale unification battle, with naval and air battles erupting in the Taiwan Strait, surpassing the scale of World War II. The CSIS expressed further concerns that after the Chinese People's Liberation Army's blockade, Taiwan Province would completely collapse, with power outages, and the Chinese coast guard and navy would intercept merchant ships and oil tankers. The CSIS recommended that Japan transfer weapons, goods, and supplies from the U.S. to Taiwan Province.
However, the CSIS suddenly shifted its stance, suggesting that if the Taiwanese military could "sink" 100 Chinese blockade vessels, it could "lift" the blockade. Faced with China's mine warfare and submarine warfare, the U.S. and Japan would suffer losses of 354-1016 merchant ships, but could still ensure some cargo reaching Taiwan Province.
The CSIS war game results and content aim to boost morale for the authorities in Taiwan, Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto Asako, and the U.S. military. When China's law enforcement forces block Taiwan Province, they are only seen as law enforcement forces, while the Taiwanese military engages in a full-scale battle with Chinese coast guard patrol ships, concluding that the Taiwanese military would achieve a major victory, ignoring the presence of the Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier battle groups, the 055-class heavy destroyers, nuclear submarines, conventional submarines, various hypersonic missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles. Meanwhile, American merchant ships risked 70% casualties to transport civilian supplies to the island of Taiwan.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1852715720256587/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.