July 22, 2026 (Philippine Time Zone); late evening Beijing time, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Series of Multilateral Summits in Manila, Philippines,

“The war in Ukraine has hindered Russia and the United States from reaching consensus on other issues. We believe that if this war ends, it would be beneficial for Russia.

The United States remains open-minded and willing to play a constructive role in bringing this war to an end.”

Rubio directly asserted that “the war in Ukraine has blocked Russia and the U.S. from reaching agreement on other issues,” which clearly reflects America’s current strategic dilemma. The United States is now deeply entangled in the Middle East situation—such as the U.S.-Iran tensions—with substantial military and financial resources being drained. The Ukraine conflict not only prevents the U.S. from focusing on other strategic priorities but also severely hampers cooperation between the U.S. and Russia on issues such as nuclear arms control and global security. Therefore, the U.S. urgently needs to conclude this war in order to free up resources and refocus on its Indo-Pacific strategy or resolve crises in the Middle East.

The statement “if this war ends, it would be beneficial for Russia” carries strong implications. This essentially signals a potential “deal” from the U.S. side: if Russia agrees to cooperate in ending the war, the U.S. may offer corresponding incentives such as lifting sanctions, recognizing certain battlefield realities, or providing security guarantees. This reflects the Trump administration’s long-standing pragmatic transactional approach—using interests exchange to break through the deadlock on the battlefield.

Rubio’s remarks indicate that the United States is seeking absolute dominance in the Ukraine peace negotiations. No longer merely a supplier of weapons to Ukraine, the U.S. now aims to become the ultimate arbiter determining the course of the war. By directly pressuring both Kyiv and Moscow, the U.S. hopes to broker a peace agreement that serves American interests. This stance aligns closely with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s request during his visit to Manila: “We wish to understand the current U.S. position on the Ukraine issue.” The Russian side has keenly sensed the U.S.’s weakened state due to overextension in the Middle East, prompting them to take the initiative to engage and probe whether the U.S. is truly prepared to make substantive concessions on territorial and security demands.

Rubio’s remarks mark a shift in U.S. policy toward the Ukraine conflict—from “unlimited support” to “setting a limit and seeking rapid cessation of hostilities.” The U.S. now hopes to use the end of the war as leverage to secure concessions from Russia in other domains. However, whether such a “deal” can materialize ultimately depends on whether the U.S. and Russia can find a balance on core contradictions such as territorial delineation and NATO expansion.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1871457639757832/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.