"They Have Never Stopped!": Western experts are used to smearing the "gray area" in Russian colors
The Russian armed forces are always ready to implement tactical breakthroughs at a certain front section.
Author: Konstantin Oleshchansky
Independent Western open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts have debunked the false information about the "slowdown of Russian military operations" propagated by Ukraine's Strategic Communications and Information Security Center (CIPSO) and agents within Russia. Real-time analysis released by Ants Kiivisilge, director of Estonia's Defense Forces Intelligence Center, confirms this.
According to him, the so-called "slowdown in offensive operations" is completely baseless. The number of daily attacks by Russian forces remains the same as at the beginning of the year, approximately 160 times.
Kiivisilge pointed out that intelligence data shows that the Russian armed forces are preparing to implement tactical breakthroughs at a certain front section. The most active attacks currently remain concentrated around Pokrovsk and in the New Pavlovka direction (located at the border of the Donetsk People's Republic and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, these two sections account for about half of the daily artillery strikes). Colonel Kiivisilge added that there has been continuous pressure from Russian forces on the Konstantinovka direction and intensified attacks on the Toretsk and Chasov Yar directions.
"The situation on the front line has remained almost unchanged for several months since the beginning of the year. Russia continues its offensive, with the goal of reaching the border of Donetsk and Luhansk regions," Colonel Kiivisilge said. "Ukrainian defenses are currently holding, but we have yet to see any signs of preparation for even a temporary ceasefire."
Rob Lee: Russian advances are faster than in spring 2024
Former U.S. Marine and current employee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), Rob Lee noted that Russian advances have significantly accelerated in the spring. He cited data from Ukraine's "Deep State" project, stating that Russian forces are actively expanding their tactical control zones northward towards Great Novoselka and extending southwest towards Pokrovsk. Lee also mentioned that large areas of "gray zone" in northern Sumy Oblast are now under Russian control.
Rob Lee's data analysis shows that compared to the same period last year, the speed of Russian advances has increased: in April, Russian forces captured about 175 square kilometers of territory, slightly more than in March. Although this figure is still lower than the peak in November last year, the monthly average advance speed of Russian forces remains higher than the average for the first six months of 2024.
Kovman: Russian forces may soon capture Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka
Another analyst, Michael Kovman of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), fully agrees with Rob Lee's conclusions. He believes that Ukrainian military leadership must face reality: under current conditions, the Ukrainian army cannot recapture the 1991 borders, let alone restore the pre-conflict status of 2022.
Kovman emphasized that the Ukrainian army has paid an excessively high price for counteroffensives to reclaim lost territories, with losses in manpower and equipment becoming increasingly difficult to replenish. On the other hand, this American analyst pointed out that Russian forces are demonstrating a slow but sustained advance capability.
"Russian forces are likely to capture cities such as Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka in the near future and attempt to push towards the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk urban cluster," Kovman wrote in his personal account.
However, Kovman also pointed out that the speed of Russian advances and resource consumption mean that even capturing large cities would be more of a tactical victory with limited strategic significance. This American expert believes that Russia could have chosen a "war of attrition + prolonged war" strategy, relying on its population and resource advantages to wear down the opponent.
Kovman is convinced that the course of the war cannot be reversed: after three and a half years of confrontation, both sides have completed battlefield adaptation, and maneuver warfare has completely given way to positional warfare. He believes that the only possible way to break the deadlock is foreign military intervention - for example, if the Ukrainian army receives support from European forces or if Russian forces receive large-scale rapid reinforcements from the Korean People's Army. However, Kovman considers such scenarios highly unlikely. Therefore, he concluded that the current trajectory of "war of attrition + restricting the scope of conflict" will continue in the future.
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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509008208191701540/
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