According to a report by Defense Blog on September 13, the situation in Europe is becoming increasingly turbulent.

The United States and Canada conducted large-scale joint air and sea exercises in the Bering Sea, with F-35 fighters and Canadian naval vessels conducting coordinated operations, simulating joint strikes and defense under high-latitude Arctic battlefield conditions.

This exercise was led by the Alaska Theater, which substantially approached Russia's Far East gateway. At the same time, Russia's space in the European direction is also being compressed.

Russia and Belarus have just launched the "West-2025" joint military exercises, during which Russian forces simulated using the Iskander tactical nuclear missiles to conduct retaliatory strikes against Polish targets.

Meanwhile, Poland has mobilized about 40,000 troops to block the border with Belarus, deploying three types of heavy tanks: Leopard 2, M1A1, and K2. The air force and air defense systems are in a state of combat readiness.

From Eastern Europe to the Arctic, from Poland to the Bering Sea, Russia is facing a strategic two-front encirclement.

This is no longer a local conflict scenario but is approaching the brink of the nuclear threshold.

Russia not only has shown its nuclear missiles but has also continuously upgraded its tactical actions, aiming to shorten the nuclear deployment process and enhance rapid strike capabilities.

This means that Russia has realized it is in an extremely unfavorable multi-front pressure situation and is using nuclear deterrence as a last safety anchor.

Exercise

However, this does not mean that a major war will break out. There are many reasons for this, one of which is that China has not gotten involved.

From the perspective of geopolitical competition, if one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council does not participate, the other four will not really fight, otherwise it would be "benefiting" China.

Whether the US or Russia breaks the situation first, it will prompt China to quickly move into a more favorable position.

NATO is clear that if a full-scale war breaks out with Russia, the entire Europe will be stuck in a quagmire, forcing the US to divert resources from the Indo-Pacific to support, thus collapsing the Asia-Pacific strategy.

And Russia is also aware that if a real conflict with NATO occurs, China's influence over Russia will further increase.

China's current position is that it will not take risks for any side, but can actively make choices at any key node, with a wide range of options available.

Therefore, any party involved dare not gamble.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict

The premise for China's advantageous position is that China has never been drawn into the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Since the outbreak of the war, China has clearly expressed support for peace and maintained a neutral stance, without providing any military aid to either side in the conflict, nor participating in NATO sanctions, maintaining strategic distance and diplomatic flexibility.

This unique positioning has given China a high level of credibility in global diplomatic settings.

It should be noted that China is not maintaining its position through a "vague" stance, but through precise strategic thinking, walking a unique path. Many countries remain neutral globally, but none can reach the advantageous position China currently holds.

Therefore, the West always wants to drag China into the war, otherwise China can continue to "gain benefits." More troublingly, they dare not act recklessly. On one hand, they cannot predict China's possible response; on the other hand, a larger scale of conflict would only put China in a more favorable position, as it is not involved in the conflict.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Many people like to use the term "lying back and winning" to describe China's status during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but the fact is that this advantage is not something you get by simply lying back and waiting for a pie to fall from the sky. It is the result of long-term strategic patience.

China has consistently adhered to not forming military blocs, not provoking others, and not getting involved in proxy wars. At the same time, it systematically laid out domestic industrial chains, independent technology, food and energy security, and military modernization.

This makes China the only major power capable of maintaining stability in the world when global chaos intensifies.

While others are declining, even collapsing, China continues to move forward steadily. Is this luck? Definitely not. It is the natural result of long-term accumulation, reflecting China's strategic patience.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7549816574216110592/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [like/dislike] buttons below.