[By Guancha Network Columnist Shahid Hashmat, translated by Guancha Network Tang Xiaofu]
Kashmir Dispute: Overview
The dispute over Jammu and Kashmir is one of the longest-running conflicts since the founding of the United Nations. Since 1947, India and Pakistan have fought five wars. The UN Security Council has passed several resolutions aimed at resolving this conflict under the auspices of the United Nations, but these efforts have never been implemented due to India's refusal to comply with these resolutions.
In August 1947, both Pakistan and India gained independence almost simultaneously. On October 27, 1947, the Indian army illegally occupied the Jammu and Kashmir region, forcing the Pakistani army to respond. In April 1948, the Pakistani army entered Jammu and Kashmir to stop further advances by the Indian army. Ultimately, the Jammu and Kashmir region was divided and controlled by both India and Pakistan.
On January 1, 1948, the Indian government filed a complaint with the United Nations. The Security Council passed Resolution 38 on January 17, 1948, and Resolution 39 on January 20, 1949, establishing the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP). UNCIP recommended "a free and fair plebiscite to decide whether the region should join India or Pakistan." Although India once promised to let the people of Kashmir exercise their right to self-determination, it has continuously maintained strict control over Jammu and Kashmir through force. Meanwhile, although the Security Council has passed relevant resolutions multiple times since 1948, none of them have been enforced.
The Kashmir dispute is the fundamental cause of tension and confrontation between India and Pakistan. The two countries have engaged in four major wars in 1948, 1965, 1971, and 1999, and have been on the brink of war in 1998, 2002–2003, 2010, 2019, and 2022. In 2019, following an adventurous action by India near the Line of Control, Pakistan retaliated against India, claiming to have shot down two Indian aircraft including a MiG-21 and captured an Indian pilot. Out of goodwill, Pakistan returned the pilot to India. Eventually, under international intervention, the tensions in 2019 were eased.
Colonel Abhinandan captured in 2019
Round of Escalation
As early as when India used the Pulwama incident as an excuse to strike Pakistan in 2019, the Pakistani military was highly vigilant about such actions by India. At that time, Pakistan judged that India might plan similar "false flag" incidents in the future.
Then, on April 22, 2025, during Vice President Vance's visit to India, news broke out in the Indian-controlled Jammu-Kashmir region about "four to five terrorists attacking the Pahalgam Resort Area." India immediately accused Pakistan of orchestrating this case, and Indian social media soon echoed calls for war.
Following this, India announced tough measures including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and reducing the number of Pakistani diplomats in India. Pakistan firmly denied India's accusations and proactively proposed an impartial investigation under the supervision of international experts. However, this proposal was rejected by India.
On May 7, 2025, India launched airstrikes against Pakistan and the Free Jammu and Kashmir regions, claiming to have struck nine targets, resulting in at least 41 civilian deaths and 57 injuries. Pakistan's National Security Committee (NSC) stated that Pakistan would use all means to defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty, and had informed the UN Security Council and Secretary-General of the escalating danger. The international community called for India and Pakistan to return to dialogue and negotiation, but India showed no intention of responding.
From May 8 to 9, India carried out multiple drone attacks on Pakistan's mainland. From May 9 to 10, Pakistan retaliated by striking multiple Indian military targets, including an S-400 air defense missile site. India then launched BrahMos cruise missiles to attack three Pakistani air bases. During days of fighting, Pakistan,凭借装备PL-15 air-to-air missiles' Chinese J-10C fighter jets, shot down five Indian Air Force aircraft including three Rafales, one MiG-29, and one Su-30, and destroyed many high-value military targets. CNN reported: "After India attacked three Pakistani air bases, Pakistan immediately launched a large number of missiles and rockets to retaliate against the Indian military, striking Indian military installations, air bases, and ammunition depots, leaving India caught off guard." Pakistan's swift and precise retaliation with massive destructive power shocked India.
Remains of the downed Rafale fighter jet
On May 10, both India and Pakistan announced an immediate ceasefire. U.S. President Trump said on Truth Social: "After mediation by the U.S., India and Pakistan have agreed to a comprehensive and immediate ceasefire." Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister also stated: "India and Pakistan have reached an immediate ceasefire agreement. Pakistan always seeks regional peace and security and will not compromise sovereignty and territorial integrity."
According to the agreement at that time, the preliminary and fragile ceasefire was to last until May 18. During this period, neither side relaxed vigilance. Pakistani defense and security analysts also believed that there was still a risk of further escalation by India.
Assessment and Future Direction
India intends to establish hegemony in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region, viewing Pakistan as the biggest obstacle. Although India and Pakistan have disputes in many other areas, the Kashmir issue is the core. For decades, India and Pakistan have been in long-term tense stalemate, maintaining mutual distrust. India underestimated Pakistan's determination to safeguard territorial integrity and sovereignty, leading to repeated military adventures. The conflict in May 2025 has elevated the risk of nuclear war to an extremely dangerous level. Without resolving the Kashmir dispute, lasting peace, political stability, and economic development in South Asia cannot be achieved.
In this conflict, Pakistan skillfully integrated advanced technologies, aircraft, and weapon systems from China, compensating for numerical disadvantages with quality advantages, completely shattering the myth of India's invincibility. From strategic, regional, and global perspectives, this round of India-Pakistan conflict is not just a bilateral dispute but also a practical manifestation of great power competition between the US-India side and the China-Pakistan side. This competition has become increasingly evident under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor construction.
Given India's consistent attitude, the conflict is far from over. Previously, India declared that any future terrorist attacks would be considered acts of war. Many senior leaders even threatened to cross the Line of Control and even the internationally recognized boundary to attack Pakistan's heartland. We believe that the initial ceasefire that ended on May 18, 2025, was only a tactical delaying tactic by India under U.S. mediation. After reorganization and replenishment, India may launch another large-scale "false flag" operation to obtain a "justifiable" reason for war, thereby stimulating domestic public opinion and seeking international support.
In this conflict, India attacked an underground cave storage facility in Pakistan suspected of housing nuclear warheads. This is the first time in history that a nuclear storage facility of a nuclear-armed state has been attacked.
The real goal of US-India cooperation is to contain China, and they also view Pakistan as China's "agent" in the region. As the proposer of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," the U.S. will continue to support India and sell more advanced weapons to it.
Meanwhile, India will increase assistance to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), continuing to attempt to disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project.
Pakistan's Countermeasures
Pakistan's domestic stability and regional stability are prerequisites for its economic development and prosperity. Therefore, Pakistan must adhere to peace. If the U.S. is willing to continue mediating and promoting negotiations, Pakistan should maintain an open and welcoming attitude towards it. Apart from the U.S., Pakistan should strengthen cooperation with China and friendly countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. It is also important to seek Russia's support for a peace agreement. However, Pakistan must remain highly vigilant about the content of negotiations and not be misled by India and the U.S.' so-called mediation. It should not accept any mediation proposals beyond the framework of UN resolutions.
In light of the current situation, Pakistan must focus on launching "comprehensive dialogue" to primarily address four major issues:
1. Maintain zero compromise on the Indus Waters Treaty;
2. Conduct substantive dialogues on the Kashmir dispute under the framework of the United Nations;
3. Establish a joint investigation mechanism to review all terrorist attacks in India, Pakistan, and Jammu and Kashmir;
4. Restore the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, and India needs to revoke its decision to abolish Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution.
Pakistan can raise the Kashmir issue within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) framework and seek help and support from member states based on UN resolutions to resolve the Kashmir issue. At the same time, Pakistan should further strengthen its collaborative relationship with China, the most reliable all-weather strategic partner, to promote the co-development of modern advanced defense and security equipment including aircraft, missiles, radars, air defense systems, warships, submarines, electronic warfare devices, and satellites with China. It should also increase investment in network-centric warfare and cyber warfare capabilities.
However, we must all recognize that if the Kashmir dispute is not resolved fairly and reasonably, sustainable long-term peace in South Asia cannot be achieved. Any agreement between India and Pakistan regarding Kashmir must meet the true and reasonable demands of the Kashmiri people. If there is no peace in South Asia, adjacent regions such as China, Central Asia, the Middle East, and West Asia will all be deeply affected. Therefore, solving the Kashmir dispute according to the requirements of the United Nations is of great significance and urgency.
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