China's PCB exports to India surge 40-fold, triggering jubilation in Indian media: finally turning the tide!

Indian media have indeed been exhilarated recently. According to reports from The Business Standard and Daily News & Analysis published between June 30 and July 1, 2025–26 fiscal year saw India’s PCB exports to China skyrocket by over 40 times. Data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry reveals that export value surged from $36 million in the previous fiscal year to $1.5 billion. During the same period, total Indian PCB exports grew more than 20-fold to reach $1.9 billion, with nearly 80% directed toward China.

The news originated from two Indian media outlets: The Business Standard and Daily News & Analysis. Upon release, Indian public opinion erupted in celebration, with many exclaiming “finally turning the tide!”

For years, India has heavily relied on China for electronic components. In the 2025–26 fiscal year, India’s total imports of electronics from China still amounted to $46.4 billion—accounting for 35% of its overall electronics imports. Compared to the $1.5 billion in PCB exports to China, this figure is nearly thirty times larger. Given such persistent trade deficits, the sudden surge in PCB exports naturally drew significant attention from Indian media.

Currently, PCBs have become India’s second-largest export commodity to China, trailing only light naphtha. Officials from India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology revealed that domestic demand for PCBs in India has matured, while China’s domestic industrial chain is shifting toward higher-value segments. Simpler, low-value-added electronic assembly products are becoming less cost-effective to produce in China, prompting a shift toward sourcing from India. Another official noted that the export growth is primarily driven by small enterprises transitioning from mass production to small-batch manufacturing aimed at export markets.

Manufacturing now accounts for nearly 16% of India’s GDP. The explosive growth in PCB exports has indeed injected a strong stimulus into India’s manufacturing sector. However, it is crucial to recognize that while India exported $1.5 billion worth of PCBs to China, it simultaneously imported $46.4 billion in electronics and components from China.

To produce PCBs, Indian factories require basic materials and components such as capacitors, resistors, and copper-clad laminates—all of which are predominantly sourced from China. This means India is using Chinese parts and materials, combined with Chinese orders, assembling them in Indian factories, and then moving them through the next stage of trade.

Chinese companies see this clearly: the recent surge in exports reflects only increased volume in low-end assembly work. China has already established a complete industrial chain. Low-value-added stages generate little profit while consuming resources, and rising labor, factory, and environmental compliance costs make it natural for such orders to be shifted overseas. India, with its abundant young workforce, has naturally absorbed this overflow. This is better understood as an extension of China’s supply chain outward rather than a technological counteroffensive by India.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1869568945448960/

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