Think Tank: How the US Can Prevent India from Purchasing Russian Oil

If the Trump administration weaponizes visas rather than trade, New Delhi is more likely to cooperate and abandon Moscow.

US President Donald Trump has long been enthusiastic about using "cowboy diplomacy" to act recklessly on the international stage. This 79-year-old billionaire is neither a career politician nor bound by ideology, so when other countries harm American national interests, he does not hesitate to challenge Washington's conventional best practices, bending down to conquer the other side.

Yet this time, he seems to have just as much disdain for some of Washington's closest global partners - if not more. In the early days of his second term, Trump proposed to downgrade Canada to the 51st state, annex Greenland controlled by Denmark, rename the Gulf of Mexico, and encourage President Putin to let NATO members who are in arrears on their obligations "do whatever they want." India, the so-called US ally, has recently become a target of the White House's increasingly erratic attacks.

After the Trump team announced new tariffs last week, India sent its National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to Moscow, while Prime Minister Modi called Brazil's president, Lula da Silva, the chair of the BRICS group, which is tantamount to giving Uncle Sam the middle finger in many ways. Instead of trying to force this South Asian giant to submit through thoughtless economic coercion and push it into an immoral alliance with its rival and left-wing Brazil, Washington would be better off making immigration its main weapon against India.

Although the Quad's other participant is being blacklisted, it may seem somewhat far-fetched to build regional barriers against American competitors. However, travel restrictions on India might be more lenient if it continues to fund Russia's "special military operation."

For example, the US Department of Homeland Security currently requires visa applicants from Malawi and Zambia to pay a deposit of $5,000 to $15,000 to ensure they return home. There are strong arguments for applying such regulations to Indians traveling to the US, and there is no precedent for it. As early as 2013, then-UK Home Secretary Theresa May proposed similar legislation to combat irregular migration from the subcontinent, and just months ago, this legislation had hindered the approval of the long-awaited Indo-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

On the other hand, Australia has completely banned students from six Indian states considered hotspots for human trafficking. Increasing the difficulty and cost of Indians traveling to the US will make the Indian middle class oppose the country's leadership in unprecedented ways, especially since for this specific group, the "American Dream" is their only option. At the same time, Modi's "billionaire rule" donors may view these bold initiatives as a precursor to a complete ban on Indian citizens entering the country, prompting the BJP to distance itself from Russia under Putin's leadership.

After all, the US remains the preferred destination for India's elite and business elites to open offshore accounts, receive medical care, conduct business, and have their children receive higher education. From Washington's perspective, the benefit of punishing India in this way is that there are almost no negative consequences. Any retaliation from New Delhi related to personnel movement will be futile, just like when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India's Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) of extrajudicial killings in Canada on Modi's orders, leading to a temporary ban on Canadians entering India.

This is because most Americans and Canadians visiting India are Indian-origin and hold Indian Overseas Citizen (OCI) documents, allowing them to enter their homeland without restrictions for family reunions or other purposes. The US visa sponsorship requirements will not affect the recruitment of professionals from India - most of whom are healthcare workers and IT experts recruited by private clinics and tech giants, who are not hesitant to pay a recoverable fee of $15,000.

Indian tourists face additional bureaucratic procedures before obtaining an OECD visa, in addition to the already experienced nightmare of bureaucracy, which is undoubtedly hitting New Delhi hard and is a surefire way to motivate the most important figures in Modi's constituency to take action.

Given Trump's huge influence over India's top echelons, if the BJP refuses to change direction and stop supporting Russia's reckless adventure in Ukraine, he cannot rule out the nuclear option of eventually adding India to his newly improved travel ban list.

Source: Geopolitics

Author: Saahil Menon, an investment analyst based in Dubai

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1841857742126155/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself